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2015 Belmont Stakes is the "Test of Champions"!

Next the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Series


to see Breeders' Cup Challenge Race Schedule
and Results Click Here....

 

to see Breeders' Cup Division Points


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American Pharoah Crowned Champion - Triple Crown Champion!
Wins Belmont Stakes Like it was Just Another Race!
 
American Pharoah Wins Belmont Stakes

Before a sold out crowd of 90,000 history seeking horse racing fans, American Pharoah gave them what they came to see! A Triple Crown winner, the first in 37 years!

As the crowd roared, the starting gates opened and American Pharoah took the lead and never looked back!  Materiality came out with him and they ran 1-2 for the first mile when Materiality began to fade. Frosted moved up and took on the challenge of catching him in the final 1/4 Mile but just when it looked like he might pass him, American Pharoah pulled away to win by 5 1/2 lengths!

Keen Ice edged out Mubtaahij (IRE) for 3rd whom had been in contention the entire race.

American Pharoah win the race like a Triple Crown Champion should  ... easily by open lengths!

Trainer Bob Baffert final got the Crown in his 4th try and it was well deserved!

It was jockey Victor Espinoza's third attempt at taking down the crown, 2nd with Baffert, and just as he did in the first two legs, he gave him a perfect ride.

It has been 37 long years waiting on the next Triple Crown champion and just when most of us had given up, American Pharoah proved that it still could done!

He is now in the racing history books as just the 12th Triple Crown Champion.


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 American Pharoah V. Espinosa $3.50 $2.80 $2.50
6 Frosted J. Rosario
  $3.50 $2.90
7 Keen Ice K. Desormeaux     $4.60
1 Mubtaahij (Ire)
I. Ortiz     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (5-6) $13.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (5-6-7) $219.00

$1.00 Superfecta (5-6-7-1) $285.00

To watch post race press interview with American Pharoah's connections: Zayats - Bob Baffert - Victor Espinoza by Clicking Here ...

You can Watch Race replay with Full NBC post race interviews by by Clicking Here ....

Sold Out - Rip Roaring Crowd Watched Triple Crown History!
Belmont Stakes Soldout Crowd

Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:

American Pharoah was able do what no other horse has been able to do for the past 37 years, win ALL 3 of the Triple Crown races. It truly is one of the most difficult feats in sports to achieve! 3 races at 3 different tracks at 3 different distances over 5 week time period as a 3-year old!

Again the race did not unfold as we thought it would. We felt that Materiality would take it to American Pharoah from the start and see if he could catch him and wear him down.

But jockey Velazquez decided that the best tactic would be follow him and that played into Espinoza's hands as he took the lead from the gate, slowed it down a little and then let him go when they came out of the final turn!

Result American Pharoah was never really pressured and was able to win easily by 5 1/2 lengths.

We did feel that American Pharoah was obviously the horse to beat and that the field was setting up for him with only 7 other runners participating! We felt that Materiality had the best chance of pressuring him as he was a front runner and had the highest Beyer speed rating in the field. But Materiality's connections did not see it that way!

With the last 13 attempts at taking down the Triple Crown ALL failing and American Pharoah being odds-on favorite we felt it was only a 60/40 chance for him to win and so we handicapped the race as though he would not win but finish in-the-money!

We explained how we felt that his Dosage Index was far too high for getting 1 1/2 Mile distance of the Belmont Stakes. His is 4.33 the average for winning at this distance is 2.50. Kudos to him for being able to out run his pedigree weakness. He has proven that he is a Top quality thoroughbred and he earned his wins in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes!

If he was to get beat, we felt that Materiality (speed horse) and Keen Ice (best closer) would have the best shot. However, when Materiality decided to rate instead of lead his race was over. Keen Ice did run well as he got up for 3rd.

In our selections we made Materiality our A1 horse (Top Pick).

Our B and C horses were American Pharoah, Madefromlucky, Keen Ice and Frammento.

Again it was a surprise that the odds on American Pharoah were not lower. I thought he would be much lower than 4-5. He paid $3.50 to the Win as the favorite in a small 8 horse field with a Triple Crown on the line! Just amazing as I was expecting something more like $2.80!

With the 2nd favorite running 2nd, the payouts for the Trifecta and Superfecta were not terrible as you could have Keyed American Pharoah on Top with ALL in the 2nd - 3rd and 4th spots in the Trifecta and Superfecta and you still would have shown a profit!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (5) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 2 ($81.50), Race 4 ($158.50), Race 5 ($13.20), Race 6 ($39.00) and Race 9 ($54.00).

Total - $346.20 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (4) Trifectas - Race 4 ($392.50), Race 5 ($38.00), Race 6 ($81.50) and Race 9 ($145.00).

Total - $657.00 for $1 wagers.

We also cashed in on (3) Superfecta. Race 4 ($1,314.50), Race 5 ($97.50) and Race 9 ($1,016.50).

Total - $2,428.50 in $1 wagers

(5) Daily Doubles, Race 5 ($98.00), Race 6 ($22.00), Race 7 ($71.50), Race 12 ($36.60) and Race 13  ($139.00).

Total - $367.10 for $2 wager.

Hit (2)  Pick 3s in Race 6 ($283.50) and Race 7 ($99.50).

Total - $383.00 in $1 wagers.


Grand Total Won - $4,181.18.

We had 9 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.

Our Best Longshot in Race 4 won and paid $23.60 for the Win.

The track was rated FAST & FIRM ALL day as there were only (2) Winning Favorites and (4) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a very nice $15.38 ....

It certainly has been a very exciting year for the Triple Crown Series races and to finally have a Champion for the history books is one we will never forget!

Summer racing is up next with top quality horses racing at Saratoga and Del Mar followed by  Breeders' Cup weekend at Keeneland.

Be sure to follow our Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" series results and updates here on our Web site ......




It has been 37 years since horse racing's last Triple Crown winner and there have only been 11 horses good enough or lucky enough to accomplish this feat!

The last horse to win ALL 3 legs of the Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes, was Affirmed in 1978.

Click here to watch video race replay of Affirmed's 1978 Triple Crown races vs. Alydar the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

 

Will American Pharoah become No. 13?  That is the big question!

In the 37 years since the last Triple Crown winner, there have been 12 horses that won the first two legs but could not pull off the sweep. They were Spectacular Bid (1979), Pleasant Colony (1981), Alyseba (1987), Sunday Silence (1989), Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008), I'll Have Another (2012) and California Chrome (2014) .....

No Kentucky Derby winner has won the Belmont Stakes since 1995 when Thunder Gulch did it!

The last Preakness Stakes winner to win the Belmont Stakes was Afleet Alex in 2005. Point Given also did it in 2001. 

American Pharoah in Preakness Stakes

Because of the grueling racing campaign of having 3 races in a short span of only 5 weeks,  we usually do not see many horses any longer run in ALL 3 legs because of the toll it takes on them.

We normally only see a horse compete in all 3 legs if they have a shot at winning the Triple Crown. Which has not happened since 1978!

This year is no different as American Pharoah is the ONLY horse that will have run in ALL 3 legs.

There will be a field of 8 runners to tackle the marathon distance of 1 1/2 Mile known as the "Test of Champions" over the "Big Sandy" dirt track.

There are (6) horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness: Frosted (4th), Materiality (6th), Keen Ice (7th), MMubtaahij (8th), and Frammento (11th).

There is one Preakness horse that skipped the Derby willing to try the 1 1/2 Mile distance at Belmont who thinks he can stop American Pharoah. It is Tale of Verve (2nd).

New faces to jump into the Triple Crown series are ONLY  Madefromlucky.

To watch American Pharoah's video race replays click here....

 To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....
TwinSpires

California Chrome wins preakness The Belmont Stakes has not been a race where the post time favorite does well!

As a matter of fact, it is a race where BIG longshots can and do win!

(6) of the last (7) winners paid $20.00 or more.....

Last year Tonalist won and paid a very nice $20.40 and the Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome finished in a Deadheat for 4th.

In 2011 over a sloppy track Ruler On Ice won and paid $51.50 while the Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished 6th after getting a horrible start.

In 2008 Da'Tara won at 39-1 when the favorite Big Brown finished last.

In 2004 Birdstone upset undefeated Smarty Jones at odds of 36-1. In 2002 Sarava upset War Emblem at odds of 70-1 and the list goes on!

In the past 17 years ONLY 2 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes. 

Did you know that the last 8 Odds-On Belmont favorites ALL lost?

You can count on American Pharoah being another odds-on favorite!

That's correct ALL of them lost! California Chrome (2014) 4-5, Big Brown (2008) 1-5, Smarty Jones (2004) 1-5, Real Quiet (1998) 4-5, Sunday Silence (1989) 4-5, Alysheba (1987) 4-5, Pleasant Colony (1981) 4-5 and Spectacular Bid (1979) 1-5. (they were ALL trying to win the Triple Crown but came up short!)

The 10 year average for the Belmont Stakes payouts are:

  • the average $2 Win paid ......................... $27.12
  • the average $2 Exacta paid ................. $271.66
  • the average $1 Trifecta paid ........... $1,157.83
  • the average $1 Superfecta paid ...... $9,566.83*                  

             * the Superfecta has only been available for the past 12 years

TwinSpires

Remember the distance of the Belmont Stakes is 1  1/2 Mile and NONE of the horses have EVER raced at this longer distance before. The Belmont Stakes is 5/16 of a mile longer than the Preakness and if you do not think that is very much, just measure it off in your car and then walk it ...  you will find that it is considerable and certainly more than enough distance for anything to happen in a horse race!

Who Can Beat American Pharoah?

Pedigree will be very important for being able to handle the extra distance of the Belmont. Some horses excel at the longer distances and some can only handle the middle distance races like the Preakness.

Do you know which of the other horses have the Pedigree to carry the 1 1/2 Mile distance?

We do and it is  a MUST, if you want to hit the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta!

We also know which horses have the Pedigree that carry the "X-Chromosome" - Large-Heart trait of Secretariat. This "Large-Heart" trait is what allowed him to win the Belmont Stakes by a record 31 lengths! His heart was more than 3 times larger than the normal horse heart. As a result he was able to burn a lot more oxygen and get a lot more energy and power just like a race car motor does to go faster....


 To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....
If you do not know which horses have the "X-Chromosome", then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy which identifies those horses with this trait!

There are (2) New Shooters showing up to take on American Pharoah and try to stop him from completing the Triple Crown series sweep! 

They are well rested and fit. It is critical that you know if their Pedigree can handle the Belmont distance of 1  1/2 Mile.

(5) of the last (8) Belmont Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes. Last year the 1st and 2nd place runners, Tonalist (9-1) & Commissioner (28-1), did not race in either of the first 2 Legs of the Triple Crown!

Just like in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes also has a Proven Winning Profile of it's own!

Did you know that in the past 36 years ONLY 6 post-time favorites won?

Did you know that 11 of the last 13 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness?

Do you know what the preferred running style is for winning the Belmont Stakes?

Do you know which horses have the PREFERRED bloodlines for being able to run the 1  1/2 Mile distance?

If you are not sure, then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!

Did you know that 15 of the last 21 Belmont Stakes winners traced their sire's pedigree line back to Raise A Native?

American Pharoah does have the Raise A Native sire pedigree line!

Do you know which OTHER horses in this years' Belmont has the Raise A Native sire pedigree line?

We do ...  and you will too when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!

Our pedigree handicapping methods have picked the Belmont Stakes winner in 6 of the last 13 years as well as the Exacta in  9 of those, the Trifecta in 6 and the Superfecta in 6 of those years!

 

We are the ONLY handicapping service that publishes the results of our Picks year after year after year online, regardless of the results! We do not take them down. You can see the results of our previous years Belmont Stakes Picks by clicking here

With the public hoping for the 37 year drought of not having a Triple Crown winner to come to an end, you can be sure the other runners will be over looked in the wagering which could lead to surprises in the Win, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta  .... which could lead to some nice payouts!

 

 To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....

 

2015 Belmont Stakes American Pharoah Triple Crown

 

TwinSpires
American Pharoah Destroys Preakness Field!
Even the Rain Gods Could Not Stop Him...
 
American Pharoah Wins Preakness

Before a record crowd of 131,680 racing fans, American Pharoah easily defeated a field of 8 runners to win by 7 lengths over a sloppy track!

What looked to be a rematch of the top 3 in the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line and Dortmund never occured! Firing Line stubbled out of the gate and had to rush up to be in contention but by the time he got to the top of stretch, he had nothing left and jockey Gary Stevens eased up on him!

Dortmund raced in 3rd the entire race following American Pharoah and Mr. Z to the top of the stretch where he ran out of gas as he held on for 4th some 15 lengths behind the winner!

Longshot Tale of Verve (28-1) just got up for 2nd ahead of Divining Rod (12-1).

When the downpour of rain before the start of the race, jockey Espinoza decided to change his planned race tactics and gun American Pharoah from the starting gate to grab the lead and win the race in wire-to-wire fashion. It was the correct decision for the sloppy track as it eliminated the kickback of mud and water in the horses face which could have affected his response!

Trainer Bob Baffert has now won the first 2 Legs of the Triple Crown and a shot at making history for the 4th time. He has done it with War Emblem (2002), Real Quiet (1998) and Silver Charm (1997). All three lost in the Belmont Stakes. Could this be the year he gets it done?

For the 3rd time jockey Victor Espinoza wins both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and will head to the Belmont Stakes looking to complete the first Triple Crown in 37 years.

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
1 American Pharoah V. Espinosa $3.80 $3.40 $2.80
5 Tale of Verve J. Rosario
  $19.00 $8.80
7 Divining Rod J. Castellano     $5.20
2 Dortmund
M. Garcia     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (1-5) $124.40
  $2.00 Trifecta (1-5-7) $985.00

$1.00 Superfecta (1-5-7-2) $1,906.90

  Click here to see the Complete Preakness Order of Finish and Payoffs. 


Our Preakness & Full Card Picks Results:

The race did not unfold as we thought it would and the rain/downpour might have had something to do with that! We felt that the Preakness Stakes would pretty much be a rematch  of the top 3 Kentucky Derby finishers.

We did feel that American Pharoah would win the race as we used him as our top selection.  He performed as we thought he would and when the monsoon came just before the start of the race, he became a LOCK to win as he had previously won on a wet track and his running style would allow him to skip over the wet/sloppy surface!

If he was to get beat, we felt that Firing Line would have the best shot. However, when he stumbled out of the gate, his race was virtually over and his jockey Gary Stevens eventually eased him up when they hit the top of the stretch.

In our selections we made American Pharoah our A1 horse (Top Pick).

Our B and C horses were Firing Line, Dortmund, Divining Rod and Danzig Moon.

We had 3 of the top 4 across the finish line but we did not use the longshot Tale of Verve (28-1)!

The reason we did not was because he was ONLY a maiden winner in his last race so this would be his first time racing against proven horses! Need to give credit to his trainer Dallas Stewart,  who is no stranger to running longshots in the Triple Crown races and finishing 2nd, as he was determined to get him in this race as he tried and failed to get him into the KY Derby! He was 100% confident that Tale of Verve was ready to perform against the best 3-yearolds.

He is also just as confident with him in the Belmont Stakes!

Another big surprise was the odds on American Pharoah. I thought he would be much lower than 4-5. He paid $3.80 and $3.40 for the Win and Place payouts. That was amazing as I was expecting something more like $2.80 and $2.10!

With Firing Line out of the money and the longshot running 2nd, we got very nice payouts in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta for a 4-5 favorite winning in a small 8 horse field

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (4) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($7.40), Race 4 ($31.20), Race 11 ($40.00) and Race 14 ($34.80).

Total - $113.40 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (4) Trifectas - Race 1 ($23.40), Race 11a ($55.60), Race 11b ($148.90) and Race 14 ($90.00).

Total - $317.90 for $2 wagers.

We also cashed in on (4) Superfecta. Race 1 ($18.90), Race 11a ($145.70), Race 11b ($148.90) and Race 14 ($154.40).

Total - $469.70 in $1 wagers

(5) Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($19.40), Race 7 ($27.20), R12 ($47.60), R14 ($13.00) and the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double of $87.00!

Total - $194.20 for $2 wager.

Hit (1)  Pick 3 in R11 ($70.20).

Total - $70.20 in $1 wagers.


Grand Total Won - $1,165.40.

We had 7 of 14 winners in our Top 4 selections with (6) as our Top pick.

The track was rated FAST ALL day UNTIL the Preakness Stakes (rain-sloppy) as there were (5) Favorites and (4) second Favorites Winning in the 14 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (14) races was a low $10.20 ....

Next up is the Belmont Stakes - Leg 3 of the Triple Crown as American Pharoah attempts to make history!

It is looking like the ONLY Preakness runner to come back is the runner up, Tale of Verve as the longshot used the Preakness as a prep-race for the Belmont Stakes as he attempts to stop American Pharoah!

Kentucky Derby runners that skipped the Preakness Stakes making a come-back in the Belmont Stakes, to give their BEST effort at keeping American Pharoah from winning the Triple Crown, are Carpe Diem (10th), Materiality (6th), Frammento (11th), Frosted (4th), Keen Ice (7th) and Mubtaahij (8th).

New York based trainers Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Nick Zito will have their  horses prepared to "ready - aim - fire" at the target on American Pharoah's back!

Other runners looking to join in are Conquest Curlinate and Madefromlucky.

 To Order Belmont Stakes and/or Full Card Picks Click Below....

The Rematch in the Preakness Stakes!

Rematch in the Preakness Stakes

Up next is the middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown which is held on the 3rd Saturday in May .....

American Pharoah looked strong in winning the Kentucky Derby but it was not easy on him as he had to dig down deep, for the first time, to catch Firing Line.  With that big run in his 3rd race in just 6 weeks he will not be at full strength coming back in 2 weeks in the Preakness Stakes!

But then neither will Firing Line or Dortmund!


Since the 2nd (Firing Line) and 3rd (Dortmund) place finishers in the Kentucky Derby are coming back to take on American Pharoah in the Preakness Stakes they seem to be saying that they want another shot at him in Leg 2 of the Triple Crown!

Did you know that in the last 10 years ONLY 3 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Preakness Stakes?  .... They were  California Chrome (2014), I'll Have Another (2012) and  Big Brown (2008).

Last year California Chrome won the Kentucky Derby and looked to be a lock in the Preakness as he was the Odds-on favorite (1/2) and he was as he won by a easy 1 1/2 lengths!
 
The only other Derby runners taking on American Pharoah again is Danzig Moon (5th), Mr. Z (13th) .

 
You can be sure that American Pharoah does have a target on his back as (3) "New Shooters" that are rested and ready, are lining up to take their best shot at AP. They are Divining Rod, Bodhisattva, and Tale of Verve.

In handicapping the Preakness Stakes you need to include the NEW shooters who almost always have a say in the Exotic wagers (Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta) ...
 
Do you know which runners have the BEST chance of stopping American Pharoah?
 
Will it be one of the Kentucky Derby runners that challenged AP the entire race or the Derby runner that ran "Evenly" behind them and will be more involved in the early part of the race this time in a smaller 8 horse field?
 
American Pharoah will no doubt be the lowest odds favorite since Big Brown (1/5) in 2008!

Did you know that 3 of the last 4 Preakness Favorites all LOST?  ... they were Orb (2013), Bodemeister (2012) and Animal Kingdom (2011)!

Did you know that the Derby 2nd place runner only won the Preakness once in the last 22 years?  ... it was Prairie Bayou in 1993.

The last time the Derby 1-2-3 runners finished the same in the Preakness was in 1978 with Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It.

The Preakness Stakes is limited to 14 runners and it looks like we will now have ONLY 7 going to the starting gate. (5) horses are from the Kentucky Derby along with (3) new shooters.

This will be the smallest Preakness field since 2000 when Red Bullet skipped the KY Derby and beat the Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus!

Over the past 20 years the Preakness field has averaged 11 runners. Smaller fields neans less traffic and it becomes easier to get a good trip.
 
Do you know which of the new faces have the Pedigree for winning the Preakness Stakes?

If you are not aware of the importance of Pedigree for the Triple Crown races and it's importance for correctly picking the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta, then check out the "Box" below and review our recent years selections!
 

We are the ONLY handicapping service that publishes the results of our Picks year after year after year online, regardless of the results! You can see the results of our previous years Preakness Stakes Picks by clicking here

 

 To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....

Just like in the Kentucky Derby, there is a Winning Profile that has proven itself over the years at the Preakness and it is different from the Derby and Belmont Winning Profiles.
 
It is extremely difficult for 3-year old horses to meet the demands of 3 races at 3 different distances at 3 different tracks over a period of just 5 weeks!
 
Thus the difficulty of winning the Triple Crown  ...
 
Most people think that the Pimlico track is a early running pace speed track and that horses coming from off the pace can not win the Preakness Stakes.
 
That was true at one-time, however, the folks at Pimlico have done an excellent job in recent years to eliminate this track bias. They have also widened the turns so they are not so sharp, which had also helped the speed horses. The turns are now more like Churchill Downs!
 
Unfortunately, a lot of the jockeys still think they must be up front early in order to have a shot at winning the race. The big question is who will try to go fast early and try to steal the race in a wire-to-wire attempt like Gary Stevens did on Oxbow in 2013?

To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....
 
Remember Magic Weisner in 2002?
 
He came from out of the clouds to just miss catching speedster War Emblem at odds of 45-1 and made for a very nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts  ...  Exacta $327, Trifecta $2,311 and the $1 Superfecta gave back $6,701  ...
 
Our Preakness Stakes Picks utilizes the Proven Winning Profile to identify those horses that have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
 
It has been successful in 11 of the last 17 years in picking the winner!
 
Not only has it picked the winner but also the Exacta in 13 of the last 17 years, the Trifecta in 9 of those 17 years and even hit the Superfecta in 7 of those!
 
Included with the Preakness Picks is our powerful wagering strategy for the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets.
 
Just in case there is rain on Saturday, (there is a 40-50% chance of rain), we will also tell you which runners will like an wet track and which will not!
 
The last 2 times the Preakness was run on a sloppy track we saw longshots win. In 1983 Deputed Testamony paid $31.00 and in 1972 Bee Bee Bee paid $39.40
 
To win on a sloppy track or muddy track a horse must have a proven pedigree for winning on a off-track surface.
 
The key to making money on the Preakness Stakes is to hit the Trifecta and Superfecta tickets without requiring a large bankroll to get maximum coverage in a 14, (now a 8), horse field.
 
You will also be provided with a Link where you can download FREE Past Performances for ALL Preakness Stakes horses.

 To Get Preakness Stakes picks & Wagering strategy

Click Below. 

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TwinSpires Kentucky Derby Bonanza




On Top of the Pyramid - American Pharoah Wins the Derby!

 
American Pharoah Wins Kentucky Derby

Before a record crowd of 170,513 racing fans, American Pharoah edged past Firing Line to win by a length. Dortmund hangs on for 3rd!

Jockey Victor Espinoza wins for the third time while winning back-to-back Kentucky Derbies.

Trainer Bob Baffert won his 4th Kentucky Derby. He trained both American Pharoah and Dortmund.

The Superfecta was comprised of 4 of the top 5 Favorites resulting in low payouts for Derby standards!

The Trifecta was comprised of all California horses!

Early race fractions were on the slow side as Dortmund fired out of the gate to grab the lead followed by Firing Line and American Pharoah. They raced that way all the way around the track with no-one forcing the pace!

The result of slowing the pace down upfront, was that it made it very difficult for the Closers to make up enough ground to catch them!

Frosted, who was our No.1 rated closer, was able to come from 14th to finish 4th just missing 3rd by a neck!

Jockey Espinoza gave another perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby and showed why an outside post is actually a good thing. He got American Pharoah out of the gate cleanly and was able to position him just behind the 2 front runners all the while keeping him in the clear avoiding any dirt kick back!

Even though American Pharoah run further than the other 2 in front of him, he was in perfect position on the outside to take the lead from Dortmund and then Firing Line. Kudos to Victor Espinoza!

Gary Stevens also gave a great ride on Firing Line as he kept American Pharoah pushed out as much as possible to give his horse every edge possible to win the race! He only lost by a length.

It was a very exciting race to watch but one that disappointed greatly on the payoff side  ...  they were the lowest in 25 years!


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
18 American Pharoah V. Espinosa $7.80 $5.80 $4.20
10 Firing Line G. Stevens
  $8.40 $5.40
8 Dortmund M. Garcia     $4.20
15 Frosted
J. Rosario     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (18-10) $72.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (18-10-8) $202.00

$2.00 Superfecta (18-10-8-15) $1,282.20

  Click here to see the Complete Derby Order of Finish and Payoffs. 


Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

International Star (SCRATCHED) was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" followed by Frosted, Danzig Moon, Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahij.

Because International Star did not earn a 100+ Beyer speed number yet, we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead using him as our (B1) horse (top in-the-money runner that would not win)  to be used in the Trifecta & Superfecta wagers. However he was Scratched from the race on the day before!

We did tell everyone that Dortmund was the horse to beat and that he had every right to win over American Pharoah. The main reason why we did not like Ameriacn Pharoah to win the race was because he had a high Dosage Index (DI) of 4.33.

ONLY 2 Kentucky Derby winners in the last 15 years have had a DI higher than 4.00 and they were BOTH (50-1) longshots, Mine That Bird and Giacomo!

In our selections we made Dortmund our A1 horse with Frosted (A2) and Mubtaahij (IRE) (A3). ie. main Contenders for the Win

Our B horses were were (after the Scratch of International Star) Danzig Moon (B1), Carpe Diem (B2) and American Pharoah (B3) - our top contenders for being in-the-money!

Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta & Superfecta were  Keen Ice (C1), Far Right (C2) and War Story (C3).

One of our suggested Trifecta wagers was to Key both American Pharoah and Dortmund on the Top and Bottom with ALL in the middle in hopes that we could get a longshot to split them. No longshot and the Trifecta paid $202

With the first 4 horses across the finish line being 4 of the Top 5 Favorites, the payouts were very low in Derby standards!

The 10 year average payouts are $1,483 - Exacta, $20,965 Trifecta, $145,611 Superfecta.

This year's Derby payouts were  $72 - Exacta, $202 Trifecta and $630 Superfecta!

The top 3 finishers all ran on the front end the entire race. The only runner that was able to close any ground on them was Frosted who just missed 3rd by a neck!

This makes for the third consecutive year that the Favorite has won the Kentucky Derby. That has not happened in a long, long time. Could this be a result of the new Derby Points system that has been in place the past 3 years?

Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!

For the 22nd time in the last 30 years, horses with the Buckpasser pedigree have won or come in 2nd. with 13 of those winning. American Pharoah had the Buckpasser pedigree as well as Frosted!

Again the importance of the Raise A Native sire line prevailed as the winner American Pharoah has it! That makes for 13 winners in the last 19 years!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (5 of 13) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 3 ($36), R4 ($151), R7 ($16), R8 ($88), R10 ($39).

Total - $330 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (3) Trifectas - Race 3 ($460), R7 ($185), R10 ($128).

Total - $773 for $2 wagers.

We also cashed in on (5) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 6 ($54), Race 7 ($78), R10 ($48), R13 ($46) and the OAKS/DERBY Double of $54!

Total - $280 for $2 wager.

Hit (2)  $1 Pick 3 in R11 ($105) and R13 ($88).

Total - $193 in $1 wagers.

Also had (1)  Pick 4 in R13 ($395).

Total - $395 in $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $1,971.

We had 7 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.

The track was rated FAST ALL day as there were (4) Favorites (3) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a solid $15.54 ....

Next up is the Preakness Stakes - Leg 2 of the Triple Crown......

It is looking like both the 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Firing Line and Dortmund, will  not let  the Kentucky Derby winner discourage them in taking another shot at him!

Other Kentucky Derby runners still considering the Preakness are Danzig Moon (5th), Materiality (6th), Carpe Diem (10th) and Mr. Z (13th).

If that many Derby horses show up it could mean that they feel American Pharoah is beatable!

New and rested faces looking to join in are Divining Rod, Competitive Edge, Stanford and Bodhisattva.


 To Pre-Order Preakness & Belmont Stakes Picks Click Below....

What is important is that you have a proven, thoughtout method of separating the Contenders from the Pretenders so that you can wager on the biggest horse race in America with CONFIDENCE!

The "Proven Winning Derby Profile" consists of the most critical FACTORS that have been found in Kentucky Derby winners over the past 26 years. These FACTORS prove themselves year-in and year-out to be the BEST method for ranking the Derby runners!





Winning Derby Profile The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 2 and will leave us all confused!
 
One thing that does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
 
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns and their pedigree.
 
Yes, a horse can have raced too much or too little in their 2 and 3-year old campaigns.
 
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and experience, it becomes just too difficultt for them to win the difficult 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby!

In 2010 the "Proven Winning Profile" ranked Ice Box as the top choice closely followed by Super Saver.

Because of the wet track Ice Box was not able to make up enough ground in the stretch run and finished 2nd to Super Saver! A $10 Exacta Box paid $380.
 
Pedigree is also critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
 
 Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
 

Did you know that 35 of the last 53 1st or 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosomes of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?

It even gets better ... 17 of the last 18 Derby winners had this powerful pedigree!

In 11 of the past 12 Kentucky Derby(s) the Winner had the "Large-Heart" trait. That is correct, California Chrome (2014 - $7.00), Orb (2013 - $12.80), Animal Kingdom (2011 - $43.80), Super Saver (2010 - $18.00), Big Brown (2008 - $6.80), Street Sense (2007 - $11.80), 2006 (Barbaro - $14.20), 2004 (Smarty Jones - $10.20), 2003 (Funny Cide - $27.60), 2002 (War Emblem - $43.00), 2001 (Monarchos - $23.00).

Only Giacomo (50-1) in 2005 did not carry this pedigree trail!

Last year BOTH California Chrome and Commanding Curve had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $340.

In 2013 the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463!

In 2010 the 4 Top finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285! 

In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60!

In 2002 ALL 4 of the top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 ......... 

The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for pumping more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this
pedigree trait! After his death an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.

Did  you know that 19 of the past 27 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or Came in 2nd? (11 of those won)?

Last year BOTH California Chrome and Commanding Curve had this CRITICAL pedigree!

In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.

In 2002 BOTH the winner & 2nd Place horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodlines and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.00 and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!

In 2003 BOTH the Derby winner and 2nd Place horses, Funny Cide and Empire Maker traced back to Buckpasser and the Exacta paid $97.00 Just imagine if you had made a $20 Exacta bet ... you would have gotten back $970.00! The winner Funny Cide paid $27.60 for every $2 wager.

In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!

In 2006 when Barbaro won, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers traced back to Buckpasser. Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 to Place. The Exacta paid $587.00, Trifecta was $11,418.40 and with a deadheat for 4th, the Superfecta(s) paid $42,430.20 and $29,919.50!

Did You know  19 of the past 32 winners (60%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.

6 of the last 12 Derby winners had this pedigree. Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).

That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.

In 2003 ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers had this pedigree bloodline. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.

Do you think it would be advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines?

Of course you do!

Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!

Winning Derby Profile

If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that are necessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last the 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profile now!


Available to Order and Download Now!


Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires.com

With the 20 horse field size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset with longshot runners finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!

Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.

2005 Kentucky Derby Winner GiacomoRemember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814, the Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?

The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-money! He was not the top pick but was one of the main Contenders.

The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.

The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are :
  • the average $2 Win paid ........................  $35
  • the average $2 Exacta paid .................. $1,483
  • the average $1 Trifecta paid .............. $10,482
  • the average $1 Superfecta paid ..... $145,611

The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.

One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile  has identified 12 of the last 14 Kentucky Derby winners!

Yes, California Chrome (2014), Orb (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (200) ALL had this FACTOR in their favor ....

If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?

Of course you do!

We are the ONLY handicapping service that publishes the results of our Picks year after year after year online! You can see the results of our previous years Kentucky Derby Picks by clicking here

These uninformed, once a year players bet on the names of horses, the number of the horse or the jockey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!

Winning Derby Profile The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzel is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders . This provides both the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts!





Available to Order and Download Now!






 

Download FREE Wager Calculator!

Have you ever wished that you could easily calculate the cost of exotic wagering tickets before you placed the bet?

The Exotic Wager Calculator easily computes the cost of Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4. Pick 6 and High-5 tickets. It is a real time saver and a big help in deciding how many horses you want to use in the Exoctic wagers. 

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Then consider joining the Horse-players Association of North America (H.A.N.A.). Membership is FREE!

They are a grass roots Non Profit organization made up of horse-players just like you.

They are not happy with track management and horseman's groups. They are less than thrilled with what they are doing to the game that we love. Instead of promoting awareness of the sport and growing handle they have become bogged down with industry infighting and have completely forgotten something: The importance of the customer.

We are tired of the signal wars, exclusive ADW deals, excessive takeouts, breakage, trainers who are rewarded for cheating, an obsolete tote system, and an attitude that smacks of entitlement. We want open access to all track signals for all ADWs, takeouts that are competitive with other forms of gambling, the abolishment of breakage, severe penalties for trainers who cheat, and odds updates in real time.

But most of all we want those who run racing to recognize us. The player matters. The player is a stakeholder too. Without money bet by us players the game would cease to exist. We can effect change. We can bring racing back to the prominence it once held in people's hearts on a national level.

But it won't be easy and it won't come overnight. It's going to take vision, commitment, and effort. But change IS possible... IF we band together in numbers. We are an independent grass roots player's organization that desires change. Won't you join us?


 

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