The Road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby has Begun!
the 1st Saturday in May will be here Sooner than You Think .....
Will There be a Triple Crown Winner this Year?
(it is 36 years and counting since the last!)
To see schedule - results of the 2014 Kentucky Derby prep races.
To see Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool Entries and Odds Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools.
On the Road to the Kentucky Derby
The Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby are in the books as the final two major 2014 Kentucky Derby schedule of prep races!
Upsets prevailed in both races!
In the Blue Grass Stakes the winner was Caifornia invader Dance With Fate (6-1). The first 4 across the wire had odds of (6-1), (6-1), (10-1) and (35-1). The favorites finished 12th and 6th respectively!.
Dance With Fate has the powerful Raise A Native sire pedigree line that was found in 9 of the last 14 KY Derby winners!
The Arkansas Derby was won by the Todd Pletcher trained Danza (41-1) and was ridden by "Jersey Joe Bravo". The favorites could do no better than 3rd and 4th! Ride on Curlin ran 2nd at (7-1).
BOTH Danza and Ride On Curlin have the critical Raise A Native sire pedigree line which has won 12 of the last 17 Kentucky Derbies.
Kentucky Derby Points Based Entry System
With the NEW Points based system, the Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last September with the running of the Iroquois run at Churchill Downs!
After 27 years of using the graded stakes earnings system to determine the 20 horse Derby field, last year Churchill Downs switched to a tiered points based system that would be accumulated over a 34 race series. The previous system include 185 Graded Stakes races where earnings could be accumulated.
The new system de-values the 2-year old racing campaign and places more value in the final prep races know as the Big 6. However missing from the Big 6 is the Illinois Derby which produced Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem in 2002. The Point system also eliminates sprint races from the prep races (which is a good thing)!
The Point system has been divided into 4 segments. They are the Prep Season with 18 races, Championship Series Leg I with 8 races, Championship Series Leg II with 7 races and the Wild Card with 1 race.
The Prep Series awards 10-4-2-1 points for 1st - 4th finishing positions, the Championship Series Leg 1 awards 50-20-10-5 points, Leg II awards 100-40-20-10 and the Wild Card race gives 10-4-2-1 points.
Winners and 2nd place finishers will determine most of the 20 horse starting field in the Kentucky Derby. It is projected that if you have accumulated 40 points or more, you will be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs!
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows the horse(s) with the next highest points to get in.
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 15 races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in multiple prep-races you should earn enough points to finish in the top 20!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign. He would still make the Derby field under the new Points system!
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) ... ALL of whom would still make the Kentucky Derby starting gate in under the new Point system!
Horses Off the Derby Trail
* New Year's Day, Coup de Grace, Top Billing, Shared Belief, Mexikoma, Honor Code, Toast of New York, Albano *
This year Churchill Downs increased the number of Future Wager Pools from 3 to 4. They added an Early pool to kick off in November. They also changed the time of when the Future Wager Pools close for taking wagers. Previously they opened on Friday and closed on Sunday at 6:00pm. They now close at 5 minutes before post time on Saturday's Derby Prep race or at 6:00pm. of that day. Which ever occurs earliest. That rule change eliminates late wagers being made on the winners of Saturday's Prep races!
Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed with $336,717 wagered in the Win and Exacta pools. Once again the "Field" closed as the (5-1) favorite followed by Cairo Prince and California Chrome at (9-1). With the "Field" finishing as the Favorite in ALL four Pools, it shows that the wagering public does not have a good feel for any standout horses. Which should lead to some very nice payouts come Derby day! CLICK Here to see complete list of entries with morning line odds and final odds .....
"The Field" closed again as the (3-1) Favorite. Next was Cairo Prince at (9-1) followed by Honor Code and Top Billing both at (11-1).The wagering public making the FIELD the favorite is evidence that they do not have a good feel for which horses are the STANDOUTS this Prep Season yet!
Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed with $287,323 being wagered in both the Win Pool and Exacta Pool. The "Field" closed as the (3/2) favorite. Next was Honor Code at (12-1) followed by Cairo Prince (13-1) and Shared Belief (14-1).
Click here to watch video replays of the major Derby Prep races.
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 3 and will leave us all confused!
One thing that does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns and their pedigree.
Yes, a horse can have raced too much or too little in their 2 and 3-year old campaigns.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and experience, it becomes just too difficultt for them to win the difficult 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby!
In 2010 the "Proven Winning Profile" ranked Ice Box as the top choice closely followed by Super Saver.
Because of the wet track Ice Box was not able to make up enough ground in the stretch run and finished 2nd to Super Saver! A $10 Exacta Box paid $380.
Pedigree is also critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
Did you know that 33 of the last 51 1st or 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosomes of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?
In 10 of the past 11 Kentucky Derby(s) the Winner had the "Large-Heart" trait. That is correct, Orb (2013 - $12.80), Animal Kingdom (2011 - $43.80), Super Saver (2010 - $18.00), Big Brown (2008 - $6.80), Street Sense (2007 - $11.80), 2006 (Barbaro - $14.20), 2004 (Smarty Jones - $10.20), 2003 (Funny Cide - $27.60), 2002 (War Emblem - $43.00), 2001 (Monarchos - $23.00).
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Last year the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463....
In 2010 the 4 Top finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285!
In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60!
In 2002 ALL 4 of the top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 .........
The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for pumping more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this
pedigree trait! After his death an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 18 of the past 26 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or Came in 2nd? (10 of those won)?
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner & 2nd Place horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodlines and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.00 and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!
In 2003 BOTH the Derby winner and 2nd Place horses, Funny Cide and Empire Maker traced back to Buckpasser and the Exacta paid $97.00 Just imagine if you had made a $20 Exacta bet ... you would have gotten back $970.00! The winner Funny Cide paid $27.60 for every $2 wager.
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2006 when Barbaro won, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers traced back to Buckpasser. Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 to Place. The Exacta paid $587.00, Trifecta was $11,418.40 and with a deadheat for 4th, the Superfecta(s) paid $42,430.20 and $29,919.50!
Did You know 19 of the past 31 winners (61%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.
6 of the last 11 Derby winners had this pedigree. Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
In 2003 ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers had this pedigree bloodline. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would be advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines?
Of course you do!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that are necessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last the 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profile now!
You Can PRE-Order Now!
With the 20 horse field size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset with longshot runners finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814, the Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-money! He was not the top pick but was one of the main Contenders.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are :
- the average $2 Win paid ........................ $35
- the average $2 Exacta paid .................. $1,456
- the average $1 Trifecta paid .............. $10,360
- the average $1 Superfecta paid ..... $148,980
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 11 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners!
Yes, Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (200) ALL had this FACTOR in their favor ....
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
Of course you do!
These uninformed, once a year players bet on the names of horses, the number of the horse or the jockey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzel is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders . This provides both the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts!
Download FREE Wager Calculator!
Have you ever wished that you could easily calculate the cost of exotic wagering tickets before you placed the bet?
The Exotic Wager Calculator easily computes the cost of Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4. Pick 6 and High-5 tickets. It is a real time saver and a big help in deciding how many horses you want to use in the Exoctic wagers.
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2014 Kentucky Derby
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