The Road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby has Begun!
the 1st Saturday in May will be here Sooner than You Think .....
Will There be a Triple Crown Winner this Year?
(it is 36 years and counting since the last!)
To see schedule - results of the 2014 Kentucky Derby prep races.
To see Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool Entries and Odds Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools.
On the Road to the Kentucky Derby
The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park is up next in the 2014 Kentucky Derby schedule of prep races! Featured horses look to be Tapiture and Tanzanite Cat along with Ride on Curlin and Strong Mandate. Entries will be finalized on Wednesday.
The race is setting up to be a very good one.
Last weekend there were two Derby Prep race, the San Felipe Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby. The winners earned 50 Points in the Derby Championship point standings. The undefeated California Chrome easily won while racing on the front end followed by Midnight Hawk and Kristo. The morning line favorite, Bayern was SCRATCHED.
The Tampa Bay Derby was won by LONGSHOT Ring Weekend in wire-to-wire fashion and was followed by Vinceremos, Surfing U S A and Conquest Titan! The 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers all have the critical Raise A Native sire pedigree line which is found in a high percentage of Kentucky Derby winners!
With the NEW Points based system, the Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last September with the running of the Iroquois run at Churchill Downs!
After 27 years of using the graded stakes earnings system to determine the 20 horse Derby field, last year Churchill Downs switched to a tiered points based system that would be accumulated over a 34 race series. The previous system include 185 Graded Stakes races where earnings could be accumulated.
The new system de-values the 2-year old racing campaign and places more value in the final prep races know as the Big 6. However missing from the Big 6 is the Illinois Derby which produced Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem in 2002. The Point system also eliminates sprint races from the prep races (which is a good thing)!
The Point system has been divided into 4 segments. They are the Prep Season with 18 races, Championship Series Leg I with 8 races, Championship Series Leg II with 7 races and the Wild Card with 1 race.
The Prep Series awards 10-4-2-1 points for 1st - 4th finishing positions, the Championship Series Leg 1 awards 50-20-10-5 points, Leg II awards 100-40-20-10 and the Wild Card race gives 10-4-2-1 points.
Winners and 2nd place finishers will determine most of the 20 horse starting field in the Kentucky Derby. It is projected that if you have accumulated 40 points or more, you will be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs!
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows the horse(s) with the next highest points to get in.
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 15 races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in multiple prep-races you should earn enough points to finish in the top 20!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign. He would still make the Derby field under the new Points system!
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) ... ALL of whom would still make the Kentucky Derby starting gate in under the new Point system!
Horses Off the Derby Trail
* New Year's Day, Coup de Grace, Top Billing *
This year Churchill Downs increased the number of Future Wager Pools from 3 to 4. They added an Early pool to kick off in November. They also changed the time of when the Future Wager Pools close for taking wagers. Previously they opened on Friday and closed on Sunday at 6:00pm. They now close at 5 minutes before post time on Saturday's Derby Prep race or at 6:00pm. of that day. Which ever occurs earliest. That rule change eliminates late wagers being made on the winners of Saturday's Prep races!
"The Field" closed again as the (3-1) Favorite. Next was Cairo Prince at (9-1) followed by Honor Code and Top Billing both at (11-1).The wagering public making the FIELD the favorite is evidence that they do not have a good feel for which horses are the STANDOUTS this Prep Season yet!
Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed with $287,323 being wagered in both the Win Pool and Exacta Pool. The "Field" closed as the (3/2) favorite. Next was Honor Code at (12-1) followed by Cairo Prince (13-1) and Shared Belief (14-1).
Click here to watch video replays of the major Derby Prep races.
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 3 and will leave us all confused!
One thing that does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns and their pedigree.
Yes, a horse can have raced too much or too little in their 2 and 3-year old campaigns.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and experience, it becomes just too difficultt for them to win the difficult 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby!
In 2010 the "Proven Winning Profile" ranked Ice Box as the top choice closely followed by Super Saver.
Because of the wet track Ice Box was not able to make up enough ground in the stretch run and finished 2nd to Super Saver! A $10 Exacta Box paid $380.
Pedigree is also critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
Did you know that 33 of the last 51 1st or 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosomes of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?
In 10 of the past 11 Kentucky Derby(s) the Winner had the "Large-Heart" trait. That is correct, Orb (2013 - $12.80), Animal Kingdom (2011 - $43.80), Super Saver (2010 - $18.00), Big Brown (2008 - $6.80), Street Sense (2007 - $11.80), 2006 (Barbaro - $14.20), 2004 (Smarty Jones - $10.20), 2003 (Funny Cide - $27.60), 2002 (War Emblem - $43.00), 2001 (Monarchos - $23.00).
Last year the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463....
In 2010 the 4 Top finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285!
In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60!
In 2002 ALL 4 of the top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 .........
The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for pumping more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this
pedigree trait! After his death an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 18 of the past 26 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or Came in 2nd? (10 of those won)?
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner & 2nd Place horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodlines and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.00 and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!
In 2003 BOTH the Derby winner and 2nd Place horses, Funny Cide and Empire Maker traced back to Buckpasser and the Exacta paid $97.00 Just imagine if you had made a $20 Exacta bet ... you would have gotten back $970.00! The winner Funny Cide paid $27.60 for every $2 wager.
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2006 when Barbaro won, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers traced back to Buckpasser. Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 to Place. The Exacta paid $587.00, Trifecta was $11,418.40 and with a deadheat for 4th, the Superfecta(s) paid $42,430.20 and $29,919.50!
Did You know 19 of the past 31 winners (61%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.
6 of the last 11 Derby winners had this pedigree. Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
In 2003 ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers had this pedigree bloodline. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would be advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines?
Of course you do!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that are necessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last the 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profile now!
With the 20 horse field size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset with longshot runners finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814, the Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-money! He was not the top pick but was one of the main Contenders.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are :
- the average $2 Win paid ........................ $35
- the average $2 Exacta paid .................. $1,456
- the average $1 Trifecta paid .............. $10,360
- the average $1 Superfecta paid ..... $148,980
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 11 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners!
Yes, Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (200) ALL had this FACTOR in their favor ....
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
Of course you do!
These uninformed, once a year players bet on the names of horses, the number of the horse or the jockey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzel is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders . This provides both the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts!
Download FREE Wager Calculator!
Have you ever wished that you could easily calculate the cost of exotic wagering tickets before you placed the bet?
The Exotic Wager Calculator easily computes the cost of Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4. Pick 6 and High-5 tickets. It is a real time saver and a big help in deciding how many horses you want to use in the Exoctic wagers.
To get your FREE copy of our Exotic Wager Calculator just fill in the form below ....
To Receive eMail updates on the Derby Prep Races
Fill in the Form Below:
For More Kentucky Derby Handicapping Information Click Here
2014 Kentucky Derby
......... Horse Racing & Handicapping News ..........
Do you feel that the horse racing industry takes WE the player for granted?
Then consider joining the Horse-players Association of North America (H.A.N.A.). Membership is FREE!
They are a grass roots Non Profit organization made up of horse-players just like you.
They are not happy with track management and horseman's groups. They are less than thrilled with what they are doing to the game that we love. Instead of promoting awareness of the sport and growing handle they have become bogged down with industry infighting and have completely forgotten something: The importance of the customer.
We are tired of the signal wars, exclusive ADW deals, excessive takeouts, breakage, trainers who are rewarded for cheating, an obsolete tote system, and an attitude that smacks of entitlement. We want open access to all track signals for all ADWs, takeouts that are competitive with other forms of gambling, the abolishment of breakage, severe penalties for trainers who cheat, and odds updates in real time.
But most of all we want those who run racing to recognize us. The player matters. The player is a stakeholder too. Without money bet by us players the game would cease to exist. We can effect change. We can bring racing back to the prominence it once held in people's hearts on a national level.
But it won't be easy and it won't come overnight. It's going to take vision, commitment, and effort. But change IS possible... IF we band together in numbers. We are an independent grass roots player's organization that desires change. Won't you join us?
THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE All the information provided herein is for news and entertainment purposes only. Use of this information in violation of State, Federal, or Local laws is strictly prohibited.