Congratulations to Tonalist in Winning the Belmont Stakes!
.... Down Goes Chrome, Down Goes Chrome!
There will be NO Triple Crown Winner this Year?
(it is 37 years and counting since the last!)
Tonalist Tunes Up California Chrome as He Nips Commissioner at the Wire!
To the disappointment of 102,199 racing fans at Belmont Park and their hope for the 1st Triple Crown winner in 36 years, lightly raced and rested Tonalist won the Belmont Stakes and prevented the hopes of the horse racing community of coming true!
California Chrome was only beaten by 2 lengths as he dead-heated for 4th with Wicked Strong.
Second place runner Commissioner almost pulled off a wire-to-wire upset as he lead every step of the way until Tonalist nipped him at the wire! Medal Count was another length behind in 3rd.
California Chrome grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate and maybe got stomped on by Matterhorn. He still put in a very good effort but when turning for home and jockey Espinoza asked him for more, his late kick was not there as it was in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes!
After the race owner Steve Coburn ripped into the owners of Tonalist and Commissioner as being "Cowards" for not having the eligibility to run in the Kentucky Derby but then being well rested jump into the Belmont Stakes to stop a Triple Crown attempt!
He said that if your horse has not earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, you should not be allowed to jump into any of the next 2 legs of the Triple Crown series - that it is not fair to those that have been competing in those races!
He came off as being a sore looser but the point he was trying make has merit!
The streak continues as California Chrome goes down to defeat and becomes the 13th horse to have failed in the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown series after having won the first 2 legs in the last 36 years! Maybe Steve Coburn was right when he said we may never see another Triple Crown winner ..............
Thanks to the great race program of (10) Stakes races, Belmont Park had a record day of $150,249,399 of total wagering handle. The racing card was almost as good as Saturday on Breeders' Cup weekend!
$2.00 Exacta (11-8)
$2.00 Trifecta (11-8-1)
$1.00 Superfecta (11-8-1-2)
$1.00 Superfecta (11-8-1-9)
$2.00 Daily Double (8-11)
$1.00 Pick3 (1-8-11)
$1.00 Pick4 (5-1/6-8-11)
$2.00 Pick6 (5-1-5-1/6-8-11)
Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:
California Chrome was our top selection to win the Belmont Stakes and become our 12th Triple Crown winner and the first in 36 years. In our analysis we felt that the (5) lines of possible inheritance of the "X-Chromosome" pedigree of War Admiral and/or Mahmoud is what was providing him with the "Natural Speed" he had shown in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes would again carry him to victory in leg 3 of the Triple Crown series!
We did not feel that it would be easy and that fellow KY Derby runner Medal Count had the best shot of upsetting him! Medal Count (25-1) did run a very good race coming in 3rd behind the winner Tonalist (9-1) and 2nd place Commissioner (28-1) with California Chrome and Wicked Strong dead-heating for 4th.
California Chrome did have bad racing luck at the start of the race when the #3 horse Matterhorn stomped on his front foot and Chrome suffered a grabbed-quarter that took off the rear part off his hoof. At some point in the race, you have to feel that it did have some sort of effect on him.
We did not feel that California Chrome would finish any worst that 2nd or 3rd and that the KY Derby runners would have the best shot at upsetting him. We felt that Tonalist just did not have enough racing foundation for him to go 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont Stakes! We were wrong on that.
So California Chrome becomes the 13th Triple Crown attempt to go down since the last TC Winner 36 years ago. As we said previously, "Stuff" just happens in the Belmont Stakes!
In our Full Card Selections:
We had (9) of the (13) winners in our Top 4 selections with (3) of them as our Top Pick and hit on 2 of our 4 Best Bets including Bayern ($20.40 in Race 5!
Hit (7) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 2 ($32.20), R3 ($81.00), R4 ($51.50), R7 ($19.40), R9 ($29.60), R12 ($40.80) and R13 ($54.00).
Total - $308.60 for $2 wagers.
Hit (3) $1 Trifectas in R2 ($42), R7 ($86) and R12 ($110).
Total - $238 for $1 wagers.
Had (3) $1 Superfectas in R1 ($430), R2 ($129) and R7 ($125)!
Total - $684 for $1 wagers.
We also cashed (6) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($43.20), Race 3 ($97.50), Race 4 ($146.00), Race 5 ($122.00), Race 9 ($38.60) and R13 ($28.40).
Total - $475.70 for $2 wager.
Hit (3) $1 Pick 3 in R3 ($256), R4 ($338) and R5 ($659).
Total - $1,253 in $1 wagers.
Hit (1) $1 Pick 4 in R5 ($3,509).
Total - $3,509 in $1 wagers.
Grand Total Won - $6,468.30.
There were ONLY (3) winning Favorites as well as (2) winning 2nd Favorites in the 13 races on the day's card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was very good $12.58
Next up is the Breeders' Cup Championships - Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 ......
Will there be a Chrome Crown?
It has been 36 years since horse racing's last Triple Crown winner and there have only been 11 horses good enough or lucky enough to accomplish this feat!
The last horse to win ALL 3 legs of the Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes, was Affirmed in 1978.
Will California Chrome become No. 12? That is the big question!
In the 36 years since the last Triple Crown winner, there have been 12 horses that won the first two legs but could not pull off the sweep. They were Spectacular Bid (1979), Pleasant Colony (1981), Alyseba (1987), Sunday Silence (1989), Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008) and I'll Have Another (2012)!
No Kentucky Derby winner has won the Belmont Stakes since 1995 when Thunder Gulch did it!
The last Preakness Stakes winner to win the Belmont Stakes was Afleet Alex in 2005. Point Given also did it in 2001.
Because of the grueling racing campaign of having 3 races in a short span of only 5 weeks, we usually do not see many horses any longer run in ALL 3 legs because of the toll it takes on them.
We normally only see a horse compete in all 3 legs if they have a shot at winning the Triple Crown. Which has not happened since 1978!
This year we have California Chrome, Ride On Curlin and General a Rod as the ONLY horses that will have run in ALL 3 legs with California Chrome trying to become the 12th to win the Triple Crown!
There will be a field of 11 runners to tackle the marathon distance of 1 1/2 Mile known as the "Test of Champions" over the "Big Sandy" dirt track.
There are (4) horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness: Commanding Curve (2nd), Wicked Strong (4th), Samraat (5th), and Medal Count (8th).
There are NO Preakness horses that skipped the Derby willing to try the 1 1/2 Mile distance at Belmont. As both Social Inclusion (3rd) and Kid Cruz (8th), who were thinking about running, decided NOT to take on California Chrome again!
New faces to jump into the Triple Crown series are Commissioner, Matterhorn, Matuszak and Tonalist.
To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....
The Belmont Stakes has not been a race where the post time favorite does well!
As a matter of fact, it is a race where BIG longshots can and do win!
(5) of the last (6) winners paid $24.00 or more.....
Last year Palice Malice won and paid a very nice $29.60 and the Kentucky Derby winner Orb finished 4th.
In 2011 over a sloppy track Ruler On Ice won and paid $51.50 while the Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished 6th after getting a horrible start.
In 2008 Da'Tara won at 39-1 when the favorite Big Brown finished last.
In 2004 Birdstone upset undefeated Smarty Jones at odds of 36-1. In 2002 Sarava upset War Emblem at odds of 70-1 and the list goes on!
In the past 16 years ONLY 2 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Did you know that the last 7 Odds-On Belmont favorites ALL lost?
You can count on California Chrome being another odds-on favorite!
That's correct ALL of them lost! Big Brown (2008) 1-5, Smarty Jones (2004) 1-5, Real Quiet (1998) 4-5, Sunday Silence (1989) 4-5, Alysheba (1987) 4-5, Pleasant Colony (1981) 4-5 and Spectacular (1979) 1-5. (they were ALL trying to win the Triple Crown but came up short!)
The 10 year average for the Belmont Stakes payouts are:
the average $2 Win paid ......................... $32.50
the average $2 Exacta paid ................. $250.76
the average $2 Trifecta paid ........... $1,796.46
the average $1 Superfecta paid ...... $9,196.63*
* the Superfecta has only been available for the past 12 years
Remember the distance of the Belmont Stakes is 1 1/2 Mile and NONE of the horses have EVER raced at this longer distance before. The Belmont Stakes is 5/16 of a mile longer than the Preakness and if you do not think that is very much, just measure it off in your car and then walk it ... you will find that it is considerable and certainly more than enough distance for anything to happen in a horse race!
Who Can Beat California Chrome?
Pedigree will be very important for being able to handle the extra distance of the Belmont. Some horses excel at the longer distances and some can only handle the middle distance races like the Preakness.
Do you know which of the other horses have the Pedigree to carry the 1 1/2 Mile distance?
We do and it is a MUST, if you want to hit the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta!
We also know which horses have the Pedigree that carry the "X-Chromosome" - Large-Heart trait of Secretariat. This "Large-Heart" trait is what allowed him to win the Belmont Stakes by a record 31 lengths! His heart was more than 3 times larger than the normal horse heart. As a result he was able to burn a lot more oxygen and get a lot more energy and power just like a race car motor does to go faster....
To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....
If you do not know which horses have the "X-Chromosome", then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy which identifies those horses with this trait!
There are (4) New Shooters showing up to take on California Chrome and try to stop him from completing the Triple Crown series sweep!
They are well rested and fit. It is critical that you know if their Pedigree can handle the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 Mile.
(4) of the last (7) Belmont Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes!
Just like in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes also has a Proven Winning Profile of it's own!
Did you know that in the past 35 years ONLY 6 post-time favorites won?
Did you know that 10 of the last 12 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness?
Do you know what the preferred running style is for winning the Belmont Stakes?
Do you know which horses have the PREFERRED bloodlines for being able to run the 1 1/2 Mile distance?
If you are not sure, then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Did you know that 14 of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners traced their sire's pedigree line back to Raise A Native?
California Chrome does NOT have the Raise A Native sire pedigree line!
Do you know which horses in this years' Belmont has the Raise A Native sire pedigree line?
We do ... and you will too when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Our pedigree handicapping methods have picked the Belmont Stakes winner in 6 of the last 13 years as well as the Exacta in 9 of those, the Trifecta in 6 and the Superfecta in 6 of those years!
With the public hoping for the 36 year drought of not having a Triple Crown winner to come to an end, you can be sure the other runners will be over looked in the wagering which could lead to surprises in the Win, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta .... which could lead to some nice payouts!
To Order Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Click Below....
Congrats to CC for Taking Down the First 2 Legs of the Triple Crown!
California Chrome again easily wins in the Preakness Stakes, leg 2 of the Triple Crown, as the 2/5 post time favorite. He got a great break from the gate and was able to join the leaders before Espinoza got him to rate behind them. Espinoza moved him outside in the three path where he had clear running. Espinoza bided his time until the final turn where he began his move on the leaders and taking the over the lead coming out of the turn and increasing his margin in the stretch to win by a easy 1 1/2 lengths before a record crowd of 123,469.
California Chrome took down the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown series and will be headed to Belmont Park in 3 weeks to attempt to take down the most coveted award in horse racing! It has been 36 years since Affirmed accomplished the Triple Crown feat!
It is easily said than done, but given the running style of California Chrome he has the best shot at it since Smarty Jones in 2004!
Jockey Victor Espinoza has been here before, with War Emblem in 2002. He knows how difficult it is to take down that 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown! War Emblem stumbled out of the gate and his race was over! That experience can only be a benefit to Espinoza.
Again, Espinoza gave California Chrome a PERFECT ride moving out away from the inside lanes, up close to the pace and in a path were he had no one in front of him kicking dirt in his face. Well done Victor!
Fellow KY Derby runner Ride On Curlin closed from the back of the pack to get 2nd while never being a threat to catching California Chrome in the stretch! Social Inclusion was the biggest threat of the "New Faces" to challenge California Chrome but could only hang on for 3rd! Follow KY Derby runner General a Rod was a head back for 4th!.
Jockey Victor Espinoza gave California Chrome another perfect ride. Getting him out of the gate quickly and moving over from the 3 hole to give he an open lane and keeping Social Inclusion to his outside. Espinoza was in perfect position coming out of the final turn to take the lead and pull away, never being threatened down the lane to the wire!
There were ONLY 3 KY Derby runners in the race and they ran !st, 2nd and 4th!
It's on to Belmont Park for the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown series California Chrome's attempt at making history! It has been 36 long years since the last Triple Crown winner when Affirmed did it!
Will California Chrome be able to accomplish the coveted feat?
Ride On Curlin
General a Rod
$2.00 Exacta (3-10)
$2.00 Trifecta (3-10-8)
$1.00 Superfecta (3-10-8-4)
Our Preakness Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:
California Chrome was our top selection to win the Preakness Stakes and continue on to the Belmont Stakes to attempt to become the 1st Triple Crown winner in 36 years. Our analysis proved to be correct as his "Natural Speed" prevailed over a good field of 9 contenders!
We also predicted that Ride On Curlin had the best chance of upsetting him. Again our analysis was correct as Ride On Curlin closed fast in the lane and for one brief moment, it looked like he would run down California Chrome. But is was for ONLY one brief moment as California Chrome pulled away from him to win by an easy 1 1/2 lengths. Ride On Curlin took down the 2nd spot just as easily by beating the 3rd place horse Social Inclusion by 6 1/2 lengths who just held off General a Rod by a neck!
The $2 Exacta paid $18.20 - $2 Trifecta - $76.00 - $1 Superfecta - $173.80 - the payouts were low with the odds-on favorite winning and the 2nd favorite coming in 3rd! The 4th place runner just missed 3rd by a neck at 20-1 odds and if he would have gotten 3rd the payouts would have been much better!
We also played (2) Super High 5 tickets with one of them cashing for $609.55 for a 50Cent wager.
Oh well, that's horse racing and we can never be upset when we cash in on all wagers, Exacta - Trifecta - Superfecta - Super High 5!
We also hit the Pimlico Special - Preakness Double for $12 and the Pimlico Special - Dixie - Preakness Pick 3 for $80 ......
In our Full Card Selections:
We had (11) of the (13) winners in our Top 4 selections with (7) of them as our Top Pick and our (3) Best Bets ALL Won - R5 ($3.20), R9 ($4.80) and R12 ($3.00)!
Hit (4) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 2 ($41.00), R3 ($53.40), R5 ($7.40), and R12 ($18.20).
Total - $120.00 for $2 wagers.
Hit (6) $1 Trifectas in R2 ($54), R3 ($88), R5 ($8), R7 ($69), R9 ($49) and R12 (38).
Total - $306 for $1 wagers.
Had (2) $1 Superfectas in R5 ($16) and R12 ($173)!
Hit (6) $1 Pick 3 in R4 ($37), R5 ($20), R6 ($19), R7 ($48), R12 ($73) and R13 ($201).
Total - $398 in $1 wagers.
Hit (1) $1 Pick 4 in R12 ($37), R5 ($20), R6 ($19), R7 ($48), R12 ($73) and R13 ($201).
Total - $398 in $1 wagers.
Hit (1) 50 CENT Super High 5 in R12 ($609.55).
Total - $609.55 in 50 CENT wagers.
Grand Total Won - $1,934.75.
There were (6) winning Favorites as well as (4) winning 2nd Favorites in the 13 races on the day's card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was very low $8.78
Next up is the Belmont Stakes - Leg 3 of the Triple Crown series ......
California Chrome will be attempting to become just the 12th Triple Crown winner and the first in 36 years in the Belmont Stakes. The last to attempt it was Big Brown in 2008 (who was pulled up and did not finish)!
He will have a BIG target on his back and we can be assured that the other runners/trainers will be trying to take him down!
Kentucky Derby runners that skipped the Preakness Stakes will be coming back to take him on again as well as some other "New Faces".
We can expect a record crowd at Belmont Park on June 7th cheering on California Chrome and the Triple Crown attempt!
Can he do it? Maybe .... but it will not be easy!
To Order Belmont Stakes Picks Click Below....
The middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown which is held on the 3rd Saturday in May .....
Since there are ONLY 2 other Derby runners coming back to take on California Chrome in the Preakness Stakes they seem to be saying that he will be difficult to beat in Leg 2 of the Triple Crown!
Did you know that in the last 10 years ONLY 3 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Preakness Stakes?
Last year Orb won the Kentucky Derby and looked to be a lock in the Preakness as he was the Odds-on favorite (3/5) but could only get 4th as he was beaten by the OTHER Derby runners!
Derby runners Ride On Curlin (7th) and General a Rod (11th) are saying give me another shot at California Chrome.
California Chrome does have a target on his back as (7) "New Shooters" that are rested and ready, are lining up to take their best shot at Chrome. They are Bayern, Dynamic Impact, Kid Cruz, Pablo Del Monte, Ring Weekend, Social Inclusion and the Filly Ria Antonia.
In handicapping the Preakness Stakes you need to include the NEW shooters who almost always have a say in the Exotic wagers (Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta) ...
Do you know which runners have the BEST chance of stopping California Chrome?
Will it be one of the Kentucky Derby runners that had traffic problems and will show BIG improvement in a smaller 10 horse field?
California Chrome will no doubt be the lowest odds favorite since Big Brown (1/5) in 2008!
Did you know that the last 3 Preakness Favorites all LOST?
They were Orb, Bodemeister and Animal Kingdom!
The Preakness Stakes is limited to 14 runners and it looks like we will now have 10 going to the starting gate. (3) horses are from the Kentucky Derby and (7) new shooters will join them including a Filly!
Do you know which of the new faces have the Pedigree for winning the Preakness Stakes?
If you are not aware of the importance of Pedigree for the Triple Crown races and it's importance for picking the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta, then view the Preakness Recap page on this site to see our results over the last several years (we are the ONLY handicapping site that keeps a history of their picks over the years online) ...
To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....
Just like in the Kentucky Derby, there is a Winning Profile that has proven itself over the years at the Preakness and it is different from the Derby and Belmont Winning Profiles.
It is extremely difficult for 3-year old horses to meet the demands of 3 races at 3 different distances at 3 different tracks over a period of just 5 weeks!
Thus the difficulty of winning the Triple Crown ...
Most people think that the Pimlico track is a early running pace speed track and that horses coming from off the pace can not win the Preakness Stakes.
That was true at one-time, however, the folks at Pimlico have done an excellent job in recent years to eliminate this track bias. They have also widen the turns so they are not so sharp, which had also helped the speed horses. The turns are now most like Churchill Downs!
Unfortunately, a lot of the jockeys still think they must be up front early in order to have a shot at winning the race. Therefore you can count on Social Inclusion, Pablo Del Monte and Bayern will insure a fast early pace right from the start. There will be a large amount of early speed which could set it up for a horse to win coming from off the pace or a closer!
To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....
Remember Magic Weisner in 2002?
He came from out of the clouds to just miss catching speedster War Emblem at odds of 45-1 and made for a very nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts ... Exacta $327, Trifecta $2,311 and the $1 Superfecta gave back $6,701 ...
Our Preakness Stakes Picks utilizes the Proven Winning Profile to identify those horses that have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
It has been successful in 10 of the last 16 years in picking the winner!
Not only has it picked the winner but also the Exacta in 12 of the last 16 years, the Trifecta in 8 of those 16 years and even hit the Superfecta in 6 of those!
Included with the Preakness Picks is our powerful wageringstrategy for the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets.
Just in case there is rain on Saturday (heavy rains are forecaste for Friday), we will also tell you which runners will like a wet track and which will not!
The last 2 times the Preakness was run on a sloppy track we saw longshots win. In 1983 Deputed Testamony paid $31.00 and in 1972 Bee Bee Bee paid $39.40
To win on a sloppy track or muddy track a horse must have a proven pedigree for winning on a off-track surface.
The key to making money on the Preakness Stakes is to hit the Trifecta and Superfecta tickets without requiring a large bankroll to get maximum coverage in a 14 horse field.
You will also be provided with a Link where you can download FREE Past Performances for ALL Preakness Stakes horses.
To Get Preakness Stakes picks & Wagering strategy
California Chrome Shines Brightly in KY Derby!
Congratulations to Art Sherman on his First Kentucky Derby Winner.....
California Chrome easily wins Derby 140 as the 5/2 post time favorite. He got a great break from the gate and was able to join the leaders before Espinoza got him to rate behind them. Espinoza moved him outside in the three path where he had clear running. Espinoza bided his time until the final turn where he began his move on the leaders and taking the over the lead coming out of the turn and increasing his margin in the stretch to win by a easy 1 3/4 lengths.
California Chrome gave trainer (ex-jock) Art Sherman his first Kentucky Derby winner making the 77-year old trainer the oldest to have won. Chrome gave California their first state-bred Derby winner 52 years. Decidedly was the last in 1962.
This was jockey Victor Espinoza's 2nd Kentucky Derby victory. His 1st being in 2002 on War Emblem who went wire-to-wire for the win.
Espinoza gave California Chrome a PERFECT ride keeping out traffic, up close to the pace and in a path were he had no one in front of him kicking dirt in his face. Well done Victor!
Longshot Commanding Curve closed well in the stretch from the back of the pack to get 2nd followed by third favorite Danza and then second favorite Wicked Strong.
Most handicappers (including myself) felt that there were so many early speed horses in here that they would burn each other up and fade in the stretch. However, the speed duel never developed as reasonable fractions were set! It appears the jockeys were also afraid the speed dual would occur and they all rationed their early speed! Final winning time was 2:03.60.
It was the slowest Kentucky Derby time since 1974 when Cannonade won in 2:04.
Wicked Strong was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" followed by Danza, Dance With Fate, Commanding Curve, Hopportunity (SCRATCHED).
Because of Wicked Strong drawing the far outside Post #20, we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead using him on the bottom of our Trifecta / Superfecta tickets and we were correct in that recommendation!
We did tell everyone that California Chrome was THE horse to beat and that he had every right to win it and if he did would have a very good shot at winning the Triple Crown!
In our selections we made Danza our A1 horse with California Chrome (A2) and Dance With Fate (A3). ie. main Contenders for the Win
We included Commanding Curve as one of our top contenders for being in-the-money!
Our Derby selections included ALL 4 of the runners across the finish line first!
We recommended Exacta of using #4-5-12 on Top of #19-20-15-18-17-8 which paid a nice $340 for a $2 wager!
Depending on how you structured your Trifecta ($1,712) and Superfecta ($7,691) with our other recommended runners (#17-20-19-15-18-8) determined if you cashed in!
Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!
For the 21st year of the last 29 years, horses with the Buckpasser pedigree have won or come in 2nd. with 12 of those winning. Both California Chrome and Commanding Curve had the Buckpasser pedigree as well as Wicked Strong!
The importance of the X-Chromosomeof War Admiral or Mahmoud played again as the streak of 35 of the last 54 first and second place runners in the KY Derby had this pedigree trait. As we explained in our picks, California Chrome has (5) lines of this pedigree, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong also has this pedigree trait!
Also the importance of the Raise A Native sire line prevailed as 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Commanding Curve and Danza have it!
The "Proven Winning Derby Profile" once again identified ALL of the first (4) horses finishing the Kentucky Derby!
In our Full Card Selections:
We had (6 of 13) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($24.00), R8 ($63.60), R9 ($124.60), R11 ($340.00), R12 ($15.40), R13 ($88.00).
Total - $655.60 for $2 wagers.
We also cashed in on (6) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 7 ($41.40), Race 8 ($31.80), R9 ($37.80), R11 ($9.00), R12 ($33.80) and R13 ($53.00) and the OAKS/DERBY Double of $11.40!
Total - $218.20 for $2 wager.
Hit (4) $1 Pick 3 in R8 ($140), R11 ($90), R12 ($41) and R13 ($258).
Total - $1,402 in $1 wagers.
Grand Total Won - $3,833.70.
We had 10 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.
The track was rated FAST ALL day as there were (4) Favorites (3) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a O.K. $10.98 (nothing to right home about)!
Next up is the Preakness Stakes - Leg 2 of the Triple Crown......
It is looking like there will ONLY be (2) Kentucky Derby runners to take another shot at California Chrome!
It will be Ride On Curlin (7th) and he will be getting a BIG jockey change to Joel Rosario and General a Rod (11th) who is also getting a jock change to Castellano.
Why are there ONLY (2) KY Derby horses showing up to take on California Chrome?
You guessed it. They do not feel they have any shot at beating him!.
New and rested faces looking to join in are Bayern, Dynamic Impact, Social Inclusion, Pablo Del Monte, Ring Weekens and the filly Ria Antonia.
To Pre-Order Preakness & Belmont Stakes Picks Click Below....
Kentucky Derby Fever is Spiking!
What is important is that you have a proven, thoughtout method of separating the Contenders from the Pretenders so that you can wager on the biggest horse race in America with CONFIDENCE!
The "Proven Winning Derby Profile" consists of the most critical FACTORS that have been found in Kentucky Derby winners over the past 25 years. These FACTORS prove themselves year-in and year-out to be the BEST method for ranking the Derby runners!
You can see the results of our picks over the past 13 years right here on our site. We are the ONLY handicapping service that publishes a history of the results of our picks and analysis!
With the NEW Points based system, the Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last September with the running of the Iroquois run at Churchill Downs!
After 27 years of using the graded stakes earnings system to determine the 20 horse Derby field, last year Churchill Downs switched to a tiered points based system that would be accumulated over a 34 race series. The previous system include 185 Graded Stakes races where earnings could be accumulated.
The new system de-values the 2-year old racing campaign and places more value in the final prep races know as the Big 6. However missing from the Big 6 is the Illinois Derby which produced Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem in 2002. The Point system also eliminates sprint races from the prep races (which is a good thing)!
The Point system has been divided into 4 segments. They are the Prep Season with 18 races, Championship Series Leg I with 8 races, Championship Series Leg II with 7 races and the Wild Card with 1 race.
The Prep Series awards 10-4-2-1 points for 1st - 4th finishing positions, the Championship Series Leg 1 awards 50-20-10-5 points, Leg II awards 100-40-20-10 and the Wild Card race gives 10-4-2-1 points.
Winners and 2nd place finishers will determine most of the 20 horse starting field in the Kentucky Derby. It is projected that if you have accumulated 40 points or more, you will be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs!
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows the horse(s) with the next highest points to get in.
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 15 races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in multiple prep-races you should earn enough points to finish in the top 20!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign. He would still make the Derby field under the new Points system!
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) ... ALL of whom would still make the Kentucky Derby starting gate in under the new Point system!
Horses Off the Derby Trail
* New Year's Day, Coup de Grace, Top Billing, Shared Belief, Mexikoma, Honor Code, Toast of New York, Albano, Cairo Prince, Midnight Hawk, Social Inclusion, Bayern *
This year Churchill Downs increased the number of Future Wager Pools from 3 to 4. They added an Early pool to kick off in November. They also changed the time of when the Future Wager Pools close for taking wagers. Previously they opened on Friday and closed on Sunday at 6:00pm. They now close at 5 minutes before post time on Saturday's Derby Prep race or at 6:00pm. of that day. Which ever occurs earliest. That rule change eliminates late wagers being made on the winners of Saturday's Prep races!
All four Future Wager Pools closed with the "Field" being favored!
This is further evidence that the betting public does not have any idea which horses have the best shot at winning the Kentucky Derby!
Click here to see final odds on all four Future Wager Pools!
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 3 and will leave us all confused!
One thing that does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns and their pedigree.
Yes, a horse can have raced too much or too little in their 2 and 3-year old campaigns.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and experience, it becomes just too difficultt for them to win the difficult 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby!
In 2010 the "Proven Winning Profile" ranked Ice Box as the top choice closely followed by Super Saver.
Because of the wet track Ice Box was not able to make up enough ground in the stretch run and finished 2nd to SuperSaver! A $10 Exacta Box paid $380.
Pedigree is also critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
Did you know that 33 of the last 51 1st or 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosomes of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?
In 10 of the past 11 Kentucky Derby(s) the Winner had the "Large-Heart" trait. That is correct, Orb (2013 - $12.80), Animal Kingdom (2011 - $43.80), Super Saver (2010 - $18.00), Big Brown (2008 - $6.80), Street Sense (2007 - $11.80), 2006 (Barbaro - $14.20), 2004 (Smarty Jones - $10.20), 2003 (Funny Cide - $27.60), 2002 (War Emblem - $43.00), 2001 (Monarchos - $23.00).
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Last year the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463....
In 2010 the 4 Top finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285!
In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60!
In 2002 ALL 4 of the top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 .........
The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for pumping more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 18 of the past 26 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or Came in 2nd? (10 of those won)?
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner & 2nd Place horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodlines and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.00 and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!
In 2003 BOTH the Derby winner and 2nd Place horses, Funny Cide and Empire Maker traced back to Buckpasser and the Exacta paid $97.00 Just imagine if you had made a $20 Exacta bet ... you would have gotten back $970.00! The winner Funny Cide paid $27.60 for every $2 wager.
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2006 when Barbaro won, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers traced back to Buckpasser. Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 to Place. The Exacta paid $587.00, Trifecta was $11,418.40 and with a deadheat for 4th, the Superfecta(s) paid $42,430.20 and $29,919.50!
Did You know 19 of the past 31 winners (61%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.
6 of the last 11 Derby winners had this pedigree. Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
In 2003 ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers had this pedigree bloodline. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would be advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines?
Of course you do!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that arenecessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last the 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profilenow!
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With the 20 horse field size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset with longshot runners finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814, the Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-money! He was not the top pick but was one of the main Contenders.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are :
the average $2 Win paid ........................ $35
the average $2 Exacta paid .................. $1,456
the average $1 Trifecta paid .............. $10,360
the average $1 Superfecta paid ..... $148,980
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 11 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners!
Yes, Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (200) ALL had this FACTOR in their favor ....
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
Of course you do!
These uninformed, once a year players bet on the names of horses, the number of the horse or the jockey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzel is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders . This provides both the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts!
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The Exotic Wager Calculator easily computes the cost of Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4. Pick 6 and High-5 tickets. It is a real time saver and a big help in deciding how many horses you want to use in the Exoctic wagers.
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Do you feel that the horse racing industry takes WE the player for granted?
Then consider joining the Horse-players Association of North America (H.A.N.A.). Membership is FREE!
They are a grass roots Non Profit organization made up of horse-players just like you.
They are not happy with track management and horseman's groups. They are less than thrilled with what they are doing to the game that we love. Instead of promoting awareness of the sport and growing handle they have become bogged down with industry infighting and have completely forgotten something: The importance of the customer.
We are tired of the signal wars, exclusive ADW deals, excessive takeouts, breakage, trainers who are rewarded for cheating, an obsolete tote system, and an attitude that smacks of entitlement. We want open access to all track signals for all ADWs, takeouts that are competitive with other forms of gambling, the abolishment of breakage, severe penalties for trainers who cheat, and odds updates in real time.
But most of all we want those who run racing to recognize us. The player matters. The player is a stakeholder too. Without money bet by us players the game would cease to exist. We can effect change. We can bring racing back to the prominence it once held in people's hearts on a national level.
But it won't be easy and it won't come overnight. It's going to take vision, commitment, and effort. But change IS possible... IF we band together in numbers. We are an independent grass roots player's organization that desires change. Won't you join us?
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