Keys to Handicapping the 2024 Belmont Stakes!
Click Here to see Breeders' Cup Challenge Race Schedule with Results
NEWS ALERTS:
Dragoon Guard Wins G3 Indiana Derby
Kingsbarn (10-1) Wins G1 Stephen Foster - Gets Entry to BC Classic Div.
Batten Down Wins G3 Ohio Derby for Bill Mott
Dornoch (17-1) Upsets in the Belmont Stakes!
Thorpedo Anna Easily Wins G1 Acorn S. by 5 1/2 Lengths!
Congrats to Dornoch (17-1) in His Upset Victory in the Belmont Stakes!
In a historical year of running the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga for the first time ever, featured were the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winners Mystik Dan (6-1) and Seize the Grey (5-1) along with the favorite Sierra Leone (3/2), in what appeared to be a show-down race of those three horses.
The race was also run at the shorter distance of 1 1/4 miles instead of the normal marathon distance of 1 ½ miles and thus lost it’s status of the “Test of Champions”!
However, the racing Gods of Saratoga, know as the “Graveyard of Favorites”, produced yet another longshot winner in Dornoch (17-1) ridden by Luis Saez for trainer Danny Gargan!
Seize the Grey went straight to the lead, just as we expected, while racing in the 2 – 3 path while in hand, leading the way to the ¾ pole while being pressured by Dornoch in 2nd all the way. With a ¼ mile to go, Dornoch took over the lead as Seize the Grey tired and began to fade and finished 7th.
All the while the undefeated but inexperienced Mindframe (5-1) was racing in a close 3rd behind Dornoch and was able to pressure him and put his head in front at the at the 3/16th but then showed his inexperience by wandering to the outside several paths as he shied away from the left-handed crop as Dornoch dug in to the wire as Mindframe got straightened out to finish just a ½ length behind the winner!
The Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan never really factored in the race as he was running mid-pack for most of the race and never got closer than 3 ¼ lengths of the lead and finished 8th, 13 ¾ lengths behind the winner.
Sierra Lone’s late closing move could only get him within 1 ½ of the winner as he finished 3rd as he was 4 lengths in front of Honor Marie (14-1) in fourth.
Dornoch is a Full Brother to the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
With a different winner in each leg of the Triple Crown Series for the 6th straight year, there currently is no standout 3-year old horse and is looking like the Haskell, Travers and the PA. Derby will go a long way in determining which 3-year old horse will be the leader of the crop!
It was a year of upsets in the Triple Crown series with Mystik Dan (18-1) winning the Kentucky Derby, Seize the Grey (10-1) in the Preakness Stakes and Dornoch (17-1) in the Belmont Stakes.
In our Belmont Stakes Picks we went with Resilience who ran 6th in the Kentucky Derby! We did this because we still felt that he was the best runner coming from the Kentucky Derby, other than the favorite Sierra Leone, who ran a better than looked race as he made a good mid-race move to get within contention after racing wide from post no. 18. He also showed Sharp morning works since the Derby.
Our Belmont Stakes Profile tells us that a horse that ran in the KY Derby and skipped the Preakness usually wins the Belmont Stakes!
We were right to pick a runner that ran in the KY Derby and skipped the Preakness, we just chose the wrong horse to win.
There were (4) runners that met this criteria and (3) of them finished in the Superfecta!
Our wagering strategy in a (10) horse field is to use (1)A horse, (2)B and (4)C horses that are our main contenders for making up the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagers.
Resilience (10-1 ML) was our A horse, Sierra Leone (9/5 ML) and Dornoch (15-1 ML) were our B runners and Mindframe (7/2 ML), Seize the Grey (8-1 ML), The Wine Steward (15-1 ML) and Honor Marie (12-1) were our C horses.
We had all four runners in the Superfecta, just not in the correct order.
Resilience was a big disappointment as he finished last after having been forwardly placed racing in 4th until approaching the Mile marker when he started to fade. No excuses for the poor effort.
Once again another horse with the powerful Raise A Native top sire side pedigree line won which now makes it a winner in 17 of last 30 editions!
We did cash-in on the $1 Exacta paying $163.25 by suggesting Boxing our B and C horses.
We also won the $5 Just a Game / Belmont Stakes Double paying $886.25 and the $5 Acorn / Belmont Stakes Double paying $257.50.
Now it is on to Summer racing at Saratoga and Del Mar!
In Our Full Card Picks:
Payoffs were good with only (3) winning favorites and (3) winning 2nd favorites along with (3) favorites running 2nd. Average $2 Win payout was a decent $17.43 with the low being $4.10 and the high $50.00.
The Track was rated Fast and the Turf Course Firm. Our Top selection won in (3) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (4) additional races.
We Hit (6) Exacta winners R6 ($18.00, R7 ($22.40), R8 ($19.00), R11 ($45.00) and R12 ($326.50).
Total - $449.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (5) Trifectas – Race 6 ($36.74), Race 7 ($40.24), Race 10 ($43.50), Race 11A (128.00) and Race 11B ($74.24).
Total - $322.72 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in Race 6 ($136.00), Race 7 ($101.00), Race 8 ($1,727.60), Race 11A ($513.50) and Race 11B ($561.50).
Total - $3,039.50 in $1 wagers.
Hit (4) Daily Doubles – Race 6 ($25.00), Race 7 ($23.90), Race 10 ($9.50) and Race 11 ($86.90).
Total - $145.30 in $1 wagers.
Had (2) Pick 3s in Race 6 ($76.00) and Race 10 ($213.25).
Total $289.25 in 50 CENT wagers.
Hit (3) $5 Special Doubles – Metropolitam / Belmont DBL ($240.00), Acorn / Belmont DBL ($257.50) and Just a Game / Belmont DBL ($886.25). Total - $1,383.75 in $5 wagers. Grand Total Winning Wagers - $5,629.82.
(4) of our Longshots to use placed in the Superfecta. They were in Race 2 (3rd), Race 4 (2nd), Race 5 (2nd) and Race 7 (3rd).
Up next is the Royal Ascot meet June 18-22 which features (4) Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge races which always produce big upsets and big payouts!
Payoffs were good with only (3) winning favorites and (3) winning 2nd favorites along with (3) favorites running 2nd. Average $2 Win payout was a decent $17.43 with the low being $4.10 and the high $50.00.
The Track was rated Fast and the Turf Course Firm. Our Top selection won in (3) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (4) additional races.
We Hit (6) Exacta winners R6 ($18.00, R7 ($22.40), R8 ($19.00), R11 ($45.00) and R12 ($326.50).
Total - $449.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (5) Trifectas – Race 6 ($36.74), Race 7 ($40.24), Race 10 ($43.50), Race 11A (128.00) and Race 11B ($74.24).
Total - $322.72 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in Race 6 ($136.00), Race 7 ($101.00), Race 8 ($1,727.60), Race 11A ($513.50) and Race 11B ($561.50).
Total - $3,039.50 in $1 wagers.
Hit (4) Daily Doubles – Race 6 ($25.00), Race 7 ($23.90), Race 10 ($9.50) and Race 11 ($86.90).
Total - $145.30 in $1 wagers.
Had (2) Pick 3s in Race 6 ($76.00) and Race 10 ($213.25).
Total $289.25 in 50 CENT wagers.
Hit (3) $5 Special Doubles – Metropolitam / Belmont DBL ($240.00), Acorn / Belmont DBL ($257.50) and Just a Game / Belmont DBL ($886.25). Total - $1,383.75 in $5 wagers. Grand Total Winning Wagers - $5,629.82.
(4) of our Longshots to use placed in the Superfecta. They were in Race 2 (3rd), Race 4 (2nd), Race 5 (2nd) and Race 7 (3rd).
Up next is the Royal Ascot meet June 18-22 which features (4) Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge races which always produce big upsets and big payouts!
Will there be Yet Another Different Winner in Leg 3?
With Mystik Dan (10-1) winning the Kentucky Derby and Seize the Grey (9-1) winning the Preakness Stake (Mystik Dan ran 2nd), who will win the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series - the Belmont Stakes?
That is the Big Question!
In 7 of last 8 years there have been a different winner in each Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Both Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey are the ONLY runners coming back for their 3rd race in a short 5 weeks!
The Belmont Stakes has not been a race where the post time favorite does well!
As a matter of fact, it is a race where BIG Longshots can and do win.
(8) of last (16) winners paid $20.00 or more ....
In the last 17 years only 7 favorites were able to finish in the Exacta. They were Forte (2023 2nd), Mo Donegal (2022-Won), Essential Quality (2021-won), Tiz the Law (2020-Won), Triple Crown winners Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015).
In the past 26 years ONLY 7 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Did you know that 7 of the last 10 Odds-On Belmont Stakes favorites lost?
That's correct ALL but 3 of them lost! California Chrome (2014) 4/5, Big Brown (2008) 1/5, Smarty Jones (2004) 1/5, Real Quiet (1998) 4/5, Sunday Silence (1989) 4/5, Alysheba (1987) 4/5, Pleasant Colony (1981) 4/5 and Spectacular Bid (1979) 1/5. (they were ALL trying to win the Triple Crown but came up short).
The 2024 Belmont Stakes will be one for the history books as it will not be run over the "Big Sandy" track at Belmont Park but at the Saratoga Race Course!
Normally the distance of the Belmont Stakes is at 1 1/2 Miles which NONE of the horses have EVER raced at this longer distance before.
However, this year it has been moved to Saratoga where it will be run at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles and several of this year's horses did race in the Kentucky Derby.
Now with the Belmont Stakes at the same distance of the Kentucky Derby, some of the same Proven Pedigree factors will be just as critical this year in the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown series as it is in the 1st Leg!
In 2020 the Belmont Stakes was run at 1 1/8 mile distance because of COVID. However, it was a 1-turn race not the usual 2-turn.
This year at Saratoga it will be a 2-turn race at the 1 1/4 mile distance same as the Travers Stakes in August. Kentucky Derby horses win a lot of Travers!
What worked in the 2020 race at 1-turn will not necessarily work this year at Saratoga in 2-turn 1 1/4 mile race.
Pedigree will be very important for being able to in the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown series just as it is in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes as will be this year at Saratoga.
Do you know which of the other horses have the pedigree to carry the 1 1/4 Mile distance?
You will when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks - Go Here Now....
Tapit Sired Belmont Stakes Winners!
The winners were Essentail Quality (2021 - $4.60), Tiz the Law (2020 - $3.60), Tapwrit (2017 - $12.60), Creator (2017 - $34.80) and Tonalist (2014 - $20.40).
X-Chromosome in Belmont Stakes Winners!
We also know which horses have the Pedigree that carry the "X-Chromosome" or "Large-Heart" trait of Secretariat. This "Large-Heart" trait is what allowed him to win the Belmont Stakes by a record 31 lengths!
His heart was more than 3 times larger than the normal horse heart. As a result he was able to burn a lot more oxygen and get a lot more energy and power just like a race car motor does to go faster ...
If you do not know which horses have the "X-Chromsome", then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy which identifies those horses with this pedigree trait!
It will be just as important at the 1 1/4 mile distance this year as it is at the normal distnace of 1 1/2 miles. It is also a critical Factor that we use in the Kentucky Derby handicapping.
Who Will Beat Seize the Grey & Mystik Dan?
There could be as many as (4) "New-Shooters" showing up to take on Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan and stop them from winning another Leg of the Triple Crown series!
They are well rested and fit. It is critical that you know if their pedigree can handle the new Belmont distance of 1 1/4 Miles.
(7) of the last (17) Belmont Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes. Nine years ago the 1st and 2nd place runners, Tonalist (9-1) and Commissioner (28-1), did not race in either of the first 2 Legs of the Triple Crown!
Just like in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes also has a Proven Winning Profile of it's own.
Did you know that in the past 45 years ONLY 11 post-time Favorites won?
Did you know that 18 of the last 24 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness?
Do you know what the preferred running style is for winning the Belmont Stakes this year at Saratoga? Think Travers Stakes.
If you are not sure, then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Did you know that 16 of the last 29 Belmont Stakes winners traced their sire's pedigree line back to Raise A Native?
The Raise A Native pedigree line is just as important in the 1 1/4 mile KY Derby as it has been found in 17 of last 28 winners
Do you know which of the "New-Shooters" in this year's Belmont has the Raise A Native sire side pedigree line?
We do ... and so will you when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Our pedigree handicapping methods have picked the Belmont Stakes winner in 9 of the last 22 years as well as the Exacta in 18 of those, the Trifecta in 11 and the Superfecta in 10 of those years!