Keys to Handicapping the 2025 Belmont Stakes!
NEWS ALERTS:
She Feels Pretty Wins G1 E.P. Taylor S. - Gets Entry to BC Filly & Mare Div.
El Cordobes (Ire) Wins G1 Sword Dancer S. - Gets Entry to BC Turf Division
The 2026 Belmont Stakes will Again be Held at Saratoga.
Sovereignty Proves Much the Best in Winning the G1 Belmont Stakes!
Click Here to See Current Breeders' Cup Division Points Leaders
Sovereignty Wins vs. Journalism Again in Belmont Stakes!
The anticipation of the Showdown between the Kentucky Derby winner and the Preakness Stakes winner lived up to the expectations, mostly!
The result was an exact replica of the Kentucky Derby finish with Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza running 1-2-3 with the pace setter and "New Shooter" Rodriguez hanging on for 4th.
The downside was they were the four favorites which resulted in low payouts.
As expected, Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, went immediately to the lead while "New-Shooter" Cudo tried to pressure him early for the opening Mile till he started to retreat.
All the while Journalism was following them 2 1/2 lengths behind with Sovereignty another length back. When entering the far turn Journalism moved out 3-wide to get first run on the pace setter Rodriguez, taking the lead at the top of the stretch.
But Sovereignty was within 1/2 length of the new leader as their battle began with the KY Derby winner's late kick propelling him past Journalism as he powerd on to win by 3 lengths!
Baeza with his strong closing kick was able to get up for 3rd just as he did in the KY Derby 5 weeks earlier 1 3/4 lengths in front of the pace setter Rodriguez in 4th.
Sovereignty became the first Kentucky Derby winner to intentionally bypass the Preakness Stakes to wait for the Belmont Stakes as he was able to take down 2-3rds of the Triple Crown series while Journalism was the only horse to compete in all 3 Legs of the TC series!
The 5 week layoff between the KY Derby and the Belmont Stakes was no doubt the key to Sovereignty beating Journalism.
The "Big-Money" boys from the International Godolphine (owners of Sovereignty) showed they have no respect for the tradition of the Triple Crown series and that they do not respect it's importance in American horse racing. They just use the excuse that they do whats best for the horse which is the easy way out for not running the Kentucky Derby winner in the 2nd Leg!
Does anyone really think that Sovereignty could not have handled all 3 legs of the Triple Crown?
The last time the top 3 finishers in the KY Derby have come back to face off in the Belmont S. was in 2013 when Palace Malice (14-1) upset the field as the KY Derby 1-2-3 runners finished 2nd-3rd-6th.
Time of the 1 1/4 Mile race was a very quick 2:00 3/5.
This was the 2nd consecutive year for the race to be held at Saratoga at a distance shorter than the normal 1 1/2 Miles while reconstruction of Belmont Park continues.
This was the first time since 2018 that a horse won more than one leg of the Triple Crown series.
Lots of rain on Saturday morning and into the early afternoon resulted in a Sloppy/Sealed track till time for theBelmont Stakes which was listed as a Good track even though the TV guys said it was a Fast track. Turf races were moved to the Dirt track with (2) G1 Turf Stakes races postponed until Sunday.
A late arriving crowd, due to the weather, resulted in an attendance of over 46,000+ fans.
Our Belmont Stakes Picks:
We made Journalism our Top pick to win the race as we really liked his Preakness Stakes win and how he did it. The athleticism, tenacity and heart he displayed in persevering to win the Preakness the way he did, we felt that he would only be better in 3 weeks in the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown series!
In addition, the last 8 times the KY Derby winner meet the Preakness Stakes winner in the Belmont S., the Preakness champ won 4 times with the KY Derby champ winning ZERO, thus the edge would go to Journalism.
Plus the Favorite in the Belmont S. has won 4 of last 7 years. Again, edge to Journalism.
Journalism also had our key pedigree factors with the Raise A Native sire side pedigree and the "X-Chromosome" Large Heart pedigree. As well as having the preferred running style for winning this race.
We did feel that there was a high probability of Journalism and Sovereignty running 1 - 2 or 2 - 1.
Our wagering strategy in a (8) horse field requires us to use (1)A, (2)B and (3)C horses to be used in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta with the A runner our best choice for the win.
We made Journalism our A horse with Baeza and Rodriguez our B1 and B2 and Sovereignty, Hill Road and Heart of Honor (GB) our C1, C2 and C3 runners.
As you can see using our A, Bs and C1 runners gave you the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.
We also suggested that just might want to play a KY Derby Trifecta.
Payouts were low as the top (4) favorites made up the Superfecta.
Our recommened wagering strategies cashed in on the $13.20 Exacta, $13.80 Trifecta and the $40.50 Superfecta which were way below the 10 year average!.
Our Full Card Picks:
Lots of rain on both Friday and Saturday with over 2 1/4 inches over a 24 hour period which resulted in a Sloppy/Sealed track up to the 13th race, the Belmont Stakes, when the track was listed a Good.
All Turf races were moved to the Dirt track which resulted in 29 horses being scratched in just 4 races. Two GI races on the Turf, Jaipur and Manhattan, were postponed until Sunday.
As a result, payoffs were very low there were (4) winning favorites, (6) favorites running 2nd as well as (2) second favorites winning.
Our Top selection won (3) races as well as being in out Top 4 in (7) additional races.
We Hit (11) Exacta winners R1 ($53.50, R2 ($38.60), R3 ($29.60), R7 ($13.40), R8 ($46.40), R10 ($22.60), R13 ($13.20) and the rescheduled R12 ($53.00).
Total - $270.30.40 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (3) Trifectas – Race 7 ($37.50), Race 8 ($48.24) and Race 13 ($13.80).
Total - $99.54 in $1 wagers.
Also had (4) Superfectas in Race 2 ($145.20, Race 7 ($150.50), Race 8 ($56.70) and Race 13 ($40.50).
Total - $329.90 in $1 wagers.
Hit (3) Daily Doubles – Race 3 ($11.70), Race 6 ($11.80) and Race 7 ($29.75).
Total - $53.25 in $1 wagers.
Hit (1) Special Double – Metropolitan / Belmont Stakes Double ($162.50).
Total - $162.50 in $5 wagers.
Grand Total Winning Wagers - $915.49. wagers.
Will there be Yet Another Different Winner in Leg 3?
With Sovereignty (8-1) winning the Kentucky Derby and Journalism (EVEN) winning the Preakness Stake (Sovereignty did not run), who will win the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series - the Belmont Stakes?
That is the Big Question!
In 7 of last 9 years there have been a different winner in each Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Only Journalism is coming back for their 3rd race in a short 5 weeks!
The Belmont Stakes has not been a race where the post time favorite does well!
As a matter of fact, it is a race where BIG Longshots can and do win.
(9) of last (17) winners paid $20.00 or more ....
In the last 18 years only 7 favorites were able to finish in the Exacta. They were Forte (2023 2nd), Mo Donegal (2022-Won), Essential Quality (2021-won), Tiz the Law (2020-Won), Triple Crown winners Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015).
In the past 27 years ONLY 7 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Did you know that 7 of the last 10 Odds-On Belmont Stakes favorites lost?
That's correct ALL but 3 of them lost! California Chrome (2014) 4/5, Big Brown (2008) 1/5, Smarty Jones (2004) 1/5, Real Quiet (1998) 4/5, Sunday Silence (1989) 4/5, Alysheba (1987) 4/5, Pleasant Colony (1981) 4/5 and Spectacular Bid (1979) 1/5. (they were ALL trying to win the Triple Crown but came up short).
10 Year Average Payouts in Belmont Stakes:
the average $2 Win paid ............................ $14.75
the average $2 Exacta paid .....,....................... $97
the avereage $2 Trifecta paid ........................$826
the average $1 Superfecta paid ................. $3,750
Tapit Sired Belmont Stakes Winners!
The winners were Essentail Quality (2021 - $4.60), Tiz the Law (2020 - $3.60), Tapwrit (2017 - $12.60), Creator (2017 - $34.80) and Tonalist (2014 - $20.40).
Last year the runner up Mindframe was a grandson of Tapit.
X-Chromosome in Belmont Stakes Winners!
We also know which horses have the Pedigree that carry the "X-Chromosome" or "Large-Heart" trait of Secretariat. This "Large-Heart" trait is what allowed him to win the Belmont Stakes by a record 31 lengths!
His heart was more than 3 times larger than the normal horse heart. As a result he was able to burn a lot more oxygen and get a lot more energy and power just like a race car motor does to go faster ...
If you do not know which horses have the "X-Chromsome", then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy which identifies those horses with this pedigree trait!
It will be just as important at the 1 1/4 mile distance this year as it is at the normal distnace of 1 1/2 miles. It is also a critical Factor that we use in the Kentucky Derby handicapping.
Who Will Beat Sovereignty & Journalism?
There are (4) "New-Shooters" showing up to take on Sovereignty and Journalism and stop them from winning another Leg of the Triple Crown series!
They are well rested and fit. It is critical that you know if their pedigree can handle the new Saratoga-Belmont distance of 1 1/4 Miles.
(7) of the last (18) Belmont Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes. Ten years ago the 1st and 2nd place runners, Tonalist (9-1) and Commissioner (28-1), did not race in either of the first 2 Legs of the Triple Crown!
Just like in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes also has a Proven Winning Profile of it's own.
Did you know that in the past 45 years ONLY 11 post-time Favorites won?
Did you know that 19 of the last 25 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness?
Do you know what the preferred running style is for winning the Belmont Stakes this year at Saratoga? Think Travers Stakes.
If you are not sure, then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Did you know that 17 of the last 30 Belmont Stakes winners traced their sire's pedigree line back to Raise A Native?
The Raise A Native pedigree line is just as important in the 1 1/4 mile KY Derby as it has been found in 17 of last 30 winners.
Last year Dornoch ($37.40) had this Crirical pedigree line!
Do you know which of the "New-Shooters" in this year's Belmont has the Raise A Native sire side pedigree line?
We do ... and so will you when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Our pedigree handicapping methods have picked the Belmont Stakes winner in 9 of the last 22 years as well as the Exacta in 19 of those, the Trifecta in 11 and the Superfecta in 10 of those years!
To Order our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy Now Click Below ....