Handicapping the 2024 Belmont Stakes!
NEWS ALERTS:
Arcangelo (7-1) Wins G1 Belmont Bemont Stakes
Congrats to Arcangelo's Belmont Stakes Win!
It was a week long celebration of the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat's record setting 31 length win in the Belmont Stakes and before the celebration was complete more history was being made with the 2023 win by Arcangelo (7-1)!
As his trainer, Jena Antonucci became the first woman trainer to win a Triple Crown Series race. Ten women had previously run horses in the Belmont Stakes with their best being a 2nd in 1988. This was also her very fist attempt to win a Grade 1 race let alone it be the Belmont Stakes with a $1.5 Million purse.
Even more history was made on Saturday when jockey Javier Castellano also won his first Belmont Stakes after winning his first Kentucky Derby 5 weeks ago with Mage. Both of those Triple Crown Series races had eluded the Hall of Fame jockey for many years!
Castellano gave Arcahgelo a perfect ride as he saved ground into the first turn just behind the pace setters National Treasure and Tapit Shoes. Down the back stretch he dropped back a little briefly and then made up what he lost with 7 furlongs to go. Castellano then got him closer to the leaders settling in a pressing position with 5 furlongs remaining. He then tucked to the inside with 9/16 to go to the finish. Then moved up midway in the final turn to get to even terms with National Treasure with 5/16 remaing as he held off the fast closing Forte (2-1) to win by 1 1/2 lengths!
The Favorite Forte ran a fantastic race after having not raced in 10 weeks. Irad Ortiz Jr. gave him a terrific ride after having raced near the back of the field in 6th. He had to rally wide in the turn and was 7 wide in the stretch as he nosed out his stablemate Tapit Trice (5-1) for 2nd. It was another 3/4 length back to Hit Show (9-1) and Angel of Empire (7/2) in a Deadheat for 4th.
Owner Jon Ebbert got a good return on his $50,000 investment he had to make to supplement Arcangelo to the Belmont Stakes as he was not nominated to the Triple Crown Series. Arcangelo's share of the purse was $900,000.
Time of the 1 1/2 mile race was 2:29 1/5 which was 5 1/5 seconds slower than Secretariat's time in 1973.
Record handle of $118,283,455 for a non-Triple Crown year was set, up 20%, with $56,533,820 wagered on the Belmont Stakes itself. Attendance was 48,089.
Our Belmont Stakes Picks:
We felt that the race would go through National Treasure, the Preakness Stakes winner, as he looked to be the Lone Speed runner in the race and that it would just be if there would be enough early pressure to make him work hard enough to tire out in the stretch.
The big unknown was how the Favorite Forte would perform after having not raced in 10 weeks because of his scratch in the Kentucky Derby! As it turned out he did very well closing from near the back of the field to get up for 2nd only 1 1/2 lengths benind the winner.
As it turned out, Pletcher was not able to get his 5th Belmont Stakes but did finish 2nd and 3rd with Forte and Tapit Trice only separated by a short nose!
We felt that Tapit Trice would finish better than Forte and thus we made him our TOP Pick to win the race.
The preferred running style to win the Belmont Stakes is a horse that can be within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 Mile as you do not want to too far behind.
As a result we felt that Tapit Trice (5-1) had an excellent shot at winning the race over the other runners and give Todd Pletcher his 5th win in the Belmont Stakes and possible take down the Exacta with Forte just like he did last year with Mo Donegal and Nest.
We liked the pedigree of Tapit Trice as he had the "X-Chromosome" of War Admiral or Mahmoud and a DI under 4.00 at 3.92 as well as being sired by the great Tapit who has produced 4 winners in the last 9 years along with 2 runnerups and 2 3rd place finishers!
We felt that his 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was good enough that with the 5 weeks to prepare for the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series he would show a lot of improvement as he was looking good in the morning works.
National Treasure did get early pressure from Tapit Shoes (21-1) and Hit Show (9-1) for the first 1/2 mile with Arcangelo not far behind them. All the while Tapit Trice and Forte were moving up to get into a pressing position coming out of the final turn.
Our wagering strategy requires us to use 1-A, 2-B and 3-C runners in a short (9) horse field with the A being most likely the winner and the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta with the Cs to make up the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.
Our A runner was Tapit Trice (A1 3-1).
The B horses were Hit Show (B1 10-1) and Forte (B2 - 5/2) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selection!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the the Trifecta & Superfecta) were National Treasure (C1 - 5-1), Red Route One (C2 - 15-1) and Arcangelo (C3 - 8-1). WE did not like Arcangelo to win because of his very high Dosage Index (DI) of 8.60 as most Belmont Stakes winners had a DI less than 4.00. This is an indication that it may be more difficult for him to get the 1 1/2 mile distance. What was on his side was that he had the Raise A Native top sire side pedigree line. In the past 32 years 7 winners had a DI greater than 3.00 (only 1 in the past 18 years) and 5 of the 7 had the Raise A Native side side pedigree!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta for $68.00 & we missed the Trifecta and Superfecta by a Head when Tapit Trice got beaten out for 2nd by Forte.
The payouts were very Low because 2 of the 3 top favorites hit the Trifecta and 3 of 4 favorites in the Superfecta and it was a small field of just 9 runners. Exacta paid $68.00, $1 Trifecta paid $266.48 with the $1 Superfecta(s) as there was a Deadheat for 4th paid $292.50 and $191.50.
Our A runner was Tapit Trice (A1 3-1).
The B horses were Hit Show (B1 10-1) and Forte (B2 - 5/2) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selection!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the the Trifecta & Superfecta) were National Treasure (C1 - 5-1), Red Route One (C2 - 15-1) and Arcangelo (C3 - 8-1). WE did not like Arcangelo to win because of his very high Dosage Index (DI) of 8.60 as most Belmont Stakes winners had a DI less than 4.00. This is an indication that it may be more difficult for him to get the 1 1/2 mile distance. What was on his side was that he had the Raise A Native top sire side pedigree line. In the past 32 years 7 winners had a DI greater than 3.00 (only 1 in the past 18 years) and 5 of the 7 had the Raise A Native side side pedigree!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta for $68.00 & we missed the Trifecta and Superfecta by a Head when Tapit Trice got beaten out for 2nd by Forte.
The payouts were very Low because 2 of the 3 top favorites hit the Trifecta and 3 of 4 favorites in the Superfecta and it was a small field of just 9 runners. Exacta paid $68.00, $1 Trifecta paid $266.48 with the $1 Superfecta(s) as there was a Deadheat for 4th paid $292.50 and $191.50.
It has now been 7 of the last 8 years that we had a different winner in each Leg of the Triple Crown Series! When will we see a horse with the stamina to compete in 2 or more Legs of the series?
Our Full Card Belmont Stakes Day Picks:
We had a good day with our Picks even though there were (9) winning Favorites and there were just (3) races with six or fewer horses!
Our Top selection won in (4) races and in our Top 4 selections in (8) other races.
Our Top selection won in (4) races and in our Top 4 selections in (8) other races.
We Hit (7) Exacta winners. Race 3 ($26.80), R4 ($58.00), R7 ($17.40), R8 ($37.80), R9 ($66.50), R10 ($12.80) and R12 ($68.00).
Total - $287.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (4) Trifectas - Race 3 ($29.24), Race 4 ($218.38), R7 ($36.50) and Race 10 ($37.00).
Total - $321.12 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in R2 ($3,250), R3 ($52), R5 ($355), R7 ($106) and R10 ($154).
Total - $3,917 in $1 wagers.
Hit (10) Daily Doubles - Race 2 ($18.60), Race 3 ($6.80), Race 4 ($34.25), R5 ($36.75), R6 ($16.50), R7 ($9.60), R9 ($8.80), R10 ($4.50) and R11 ($35.50).
Total - $252.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (11) Pick 3s in R1 ($54.50), R2 ($83.50), R3 ($71.25), R4 ($167.50), R5 ($123.75), R6 ($13.40), R7 ($47.25), R8 ($28.75). R9 ($23.40). R10 ($42.75) and R11 ($65.50).
Total - $721.55 in $1 Wagers.
Hit (4) Pick 4s - Race 2 ($299.75), Race 4 ($261.75), Race 6 ($103.37) and Race 10 ($45.25).
Total - $710.12 in 50 CENT wagers. Hit (3) Pick 5s - Race 1 ($1,264.50), Race 8 ($444.75) and Race 9 ($458.00).
Total - $2,167.25 in 50 CENT wagers.Grand Total Won - $8,377.04 Payouts were very low for the Win with an average of just $8.07. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a very good day winning (4) races, (1) 2nd and (2) 3rds. Joel Rosario also had a good day winning (2) races along with (3) 2nds. Up next is the Royal Ascot meet June 20 - 24 featuring (8) Group I, (8) Group II and (3) Group III races.
Total - $287.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (4) Trifectas - Race 3 ($29.24), Race 4 ($218.38), R7 ($36.50) and Race 10 ($37.00).
Total - $321.12 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in R2 ($3,250), R3 ($52), R5 ($355), R7 ($106) and R10 ($154).
Total - $3,917 in $1 wagers.
Hit (10) Daily Doubles - Race 2 ($18.60), Race 3 ($6.80), Race 4 ($34.25), R5 ($36.75), R6 ($16.50), R7 ($9.60), R9 ($8.80), R10 ($4.50) and R11 ($35.50).
Total - $252.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (11) Pick 3s in R1 ($54.50), R2 ($83.50), R3 ($71.25), R4 ($167.50), R5 ($123.75), R6 ($13.40), R7 ($47.25), R8 ($28.75). R9 ($23.40). R10 ($42.75) and R11 ($65.50).
Total - $721.55 in $1 Wagers.
Hit (4) Pick 4s - Race 2 ($299.75), Race 4 ($261.75), Race 6 ($103.37) and Race 10 ($45.25).
Total - $710.12 in 50 CENT wagers. Hit (3) Pick 5s - Race 1 ($1,264.50), Race 8 ($444.75) and Race 9 ($458.00).
Total - $2,167.25 in 50 CENT wagers.Grand Total Won - $8,377.04 Payouts were very low for the Win with an average of just $8.07. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a very good day winning (4) races, (1) 2nd and (2) 3rds. Joel Rosario also had a good day winning (2) races along with (3) 2nds. Up next is the Royal Ascot meet June 20 - 24 featuring (8) Group I, (8) Group II and (3) Group III races.
Then it is on to Summer time meets at Saratoga and Del Mar whic will feature several Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" Challenge races.
Will there be Yet Another Different Winner in Leg 3?
With Mage (15-1) winning the Kentucky Derby and National Treasure (3-1) winning the Preakness Stake (Mage ran 3rd), who will win the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series - the Belmont Stakes?
That is the Big Question!
In 6 of last 7 years there have been a different winner in each Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
The Belmont Stakes has not been a race where the post time favorite does well!
As a matter of fact, it is a race where BIG Longshots can and do win!
(8) of last (15) winners paid $20.00 or more ....
In the last 16 years only 6 favorites were able to finish in the Exacta. They were Mo Donegal (2022-Won), Essential Quality (2021-won), Tiz the Law (2020-Won), Triple Crown winners Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015).
In the past 25 years ONLY 7 post time favorites have been able to win the Belmont Stakes.
Did you know that 7 of the last 10 Odds-On Belmont Stakes favorites lost?
That's correct ALL but 3 of them lost! California Chrome (2014) 4/5, Big Brown (2008) 1/5, Smarty Jones (2004) 1/5, Real Quiet (1998) 4/5, Sunday Silence (1989) 4/5, Alysheba (1987) 4/5, Pleasant Colony (1981) 4/5 and Spectacular Bid (1979) 1/5. (they were ALL trying to win the Triple Crown but came up short).
Rember the distance of the Belmont Stakes is 1 1/2 Miles and NONE of the horses have EVER raced at this longer distance before. The Belmont Stakes is 5/16th of a mile longer than the Preakness Stakes and if you do not think that is very much, just measure it off in your car and then walk it ... you will find that it is considerable and certainly more than enough distance for anything to happen in a horse race!
Pedigree will be very important for being able to handle the extra distance of the Belmont. Some horses excel at the longer distances and some can only only handle the middle distance races like in the Preakness Stakes.
Do you know which of the other horses have the pedigree to carry the 1 1/2 Mile distance?
We do and it is a MUST if you want to cash in on the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagers!
Tapit Sired Belmont Stakes Winners!
The winners were Essentail Quality (2021 - $4.60), Tiz the Law (2020 - $3.60), Tapwrit (2017 - $12.60), Creator (2017 - $34.80) and Tonalist (2014 - $20.40).
X-Chromosome in Belmont Stakes Winners!
We also know which horses have the Pedigree that carry the "X-Chromosome" or "Large-Heart" trait of Secretariat. This "Large-Heart" trait is what allowed him to win the Belmont Stakes by a record 31 lengths!
His heart was more than 3 times larger than the normal horse heart. As a result he was able to burn a lot more oxygen and get a lot more energy and power just like a race car motor does to go faster ...
If you do not know which horses havd the "X-Chromsome", then you nee to get our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy which identifies those horses with this pedigree trait!
Who Will Beat Forte?
There could be as many as (6) "New Shooters" showing up to take on National Treasure and stop him from winning another Leg of the Triple Crown series!
They are well rested and fit. It is critical that you know if their pedigree can handle the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 Miles.
(6) of the last (16) Belmont Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes. Eight years ago the 1st and 2nd place runners, Tonalist (9-1) and Commissioner (28-1), did not race in either of the first 2 Legs of the Triple Crown!
Just like in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes also has a Proven Winning Profile of it's own.
Did you know that in the past 44 years ONLY 11 post-time Favorites won?
Did you know that 17 of the last 23 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness?
Do you know what the preferred running style is for winning the Belmont Stakes?
If you are not sure, then you need to get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Did you know that 15 of the last 28 Belmont Stakes winners traced their sire's pedigree line back to Raise A Native?
Do you know which of the OTHER horses in this year's Belmont has the Raise A Native sire side pedigree line?
We do ... and so will you when you get our Belmont Stakes Picks and Wagering Strategy!
Our pedigree handicapping methods have picked the Belmont Stakes winner in 9 of the last 21 years as well as the Exacta in 17 of those, the Trifecta in 11 and the Superfecta in 10 of those years!