Keys to Handicapping the 2024 Preakness Stakes!
NEWS ALERTS:
Seize the Grey is Confirmed for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga!
Seize the Grey Wins the 149th Preakness Stakes for D. Wayne Lukas!
Gun Song Wins G2 Black-Eyed Susan as the Favorite!
Congrats to Seize the Grey in Winning the Preakness Stakes!
Seize the Grey (10-1) went wire-to-wire over a muddy track to give 88 year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas his 7th win in the Preakness Stakes and his 15th in the Triple Crown series race.
Ridden by the young and upcoming jockey Jamie Torres, Seize the Grey provided him with his first Grade 1 win after having earned his first Graded race win with him in the G2 Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day!
When the morning line favorite Muth, trained by Bob Baffert, was withdrawn from the race due to illness, it appeared that the race would be wide-open!
Baffert had a second horse, Imagination, entered that also looked to be a speed horse who would want to lead the field around the track and play catch me if you can!
As it turned out, Seize the Grey was the horse that lead the field around the track on the front end winning the race in wire-to-wire fashion.
Immagination (4-1) breaking from the outside post no. 9 with Frankie Dettori riding, conceeded the lead to Seize the Grey and rated within 1/2 length for the first 1/4 mile and then allowed Seize the Grey to move a little further ahead to put 2 lengths between al the while the Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (5/2) was in 4th for the opening 1/2 mile.
Immagination stayed in contention until they raeched the top of the stretch where he began to fall back while Mystik Dan was swung outside, coming off the rail (that he ran so well on in the KY Derby) to make his move on the leader.
Lukas' other runner, Just Steel (10-1), was racing along side of Mystik Dan and was 4th at the top of the stretch but then he started to fade to finish 5th. After the race it was discovered that he had suffered a condylar fracture to his front right leg.
Catching Freedom (7/2) began his closing move coming out of the far turn and started making up ground on the leaders in the stretch as it looked like Mystik Dan and/or Catching Freedom would catch the leader but in the end Seize the Grey proved to be too tough as he won by 2 1/4 lengths in front of Mystik Dan (thus ending his Triple Crown pursuit) who held off Catching Freedom by a Head!
Tuscan Gold (9/2), the "wise-guy horse" was 6 lengths behind Catching Freedom in 4th.
At 88 years old, Lukas became the oldest trainer to win a Triple Crown race!
The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is up next on June 18th as the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Watch Video Race Replay of the 149th Preakness Stakes – Seize the Grey’s Upset Win!
In our Preakness Stakes Picks we went with the other Bob Baffert runner Imagination! We did this because, even though Muth his No. 1 horse was withdrawn from the race, we still felt that he was the best Early Speed runner in the race and with rain in the forecast he would skip over the Wet/Sloppy track and be able to prevail over the Closers!
Well, we were wrong about Imagination but correct on how the race would be won. We just made a mistake in who would be the Early/Speed runner that would hold off the Closer. It was Seize the Grey who did it!
As a big fan of jockey Frankie Dettori, I thought his race tactic was the wrong one to use with Imagination. He should have went stratight to the lead rather than give the lead uncontested to Seize the Grey. Even the winning jock said he was surprised that Imagination did not go for the lead!
Trainer Baffert is the record holder in Preakness Stakes wins with 8 and thus that was an added edge in Imagination's favor. Now D. Wayne Lukas is only 1 Preakness Stakes win from tying Baffert!
Our wagering strategy in a small (8) horse field is to use (1)A horse, (2)B and (3)C hores that are our main contenders for making up the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta wagers.
Imagination (4-1) was our A horse, Tuscan Gold (9/2) and Catching Freedom (7/2) were our B runners and Mystik Dan (5/2), Seize the Grey (10-1) and Uncle Heavy (8-1) were our C horses.
We had all four runners in the Superfecta, just not in the correct order.
It appeared that Tuscan Gold did not like the Muddy track and never got into the race and though his jock Gaffalione gave him constent urging throughout the race to no avail as he finished 8 1/2 lengths behind the winner.
We did cashin on the $119.40 Exacta by suggesting a Bottom Wheel Exacta of ALL with the KY Derby winner Mystik Dan.
If you Boxed the (3) runners that had previously won on a Wet track you cashed in on the $119.40 Exacta and if you added in the (2) runners that had hit the board on a Wet track you cashed in on the $182.70 $1 Trifecta.
Trainer Lukas has indicated that Seize the Grey will run in the Belmont Stakes along with the KY Derby winner Mystik Dan and the KY Derby Favorite Fierceness!
In Our Full Card Picks:
Payoffs were decent even with (4) winning favorites and (2) winning 2nd favorites. Average $2 Win payout was a nice $23.80 with the low being $3.20 and the high $79.40. The rain on the day resulted in 24 horses being Scratched as there were only 2 races that did not have any scratches. The many scratches did affect our selections in several races.
The Track was rated Muddy and the Turf Course Soft. Two races were taken off the Turf and moved to the main track. Our Top selection won in (2) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (7) additional races.
We Hit (7) Exacta winners R3 ($35.40, R6 ($36.00), R7 ($8.40), R10 ($30.60), R11 ($61.80), R13 ($119.40) and R14 ($38.00).
Total - $329.60 for $2 wagers. Cashed in on (3) Trifectas – Race 3 ($47.70), Race 6 ($41.30) and Race 7 ($19.50).
Total - $108.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (3) Superfectas in Race 3 ($251.70), Race 6 ($154.40) and Race 7 ($30.80).
Total - $436.90 in $1 wagers.
Hit (4) Daily Doubles – Race 3 ($32.30), Race 6 ($5.40), Race 9 ($8.30) and Race 11 ($48.10).
Total - $94.10 in $1 wagers.
Had (2) Pick 3s in Race 9 ($35.60) and Race 10 (88.95).
Total $124.55 in 50 CENT wagers. Grand Total Winning Wagers - $1,093.65.
(7) of our Longshots to use placed in the Superfecta. They were in Race 1 (3rd), Race 2 (2nd), Race 4 (3rd), Race 5 (3rd), Race 7 (2nd), Race 10 (4th) and Race 11 (Won). The Belmont Stakes, the final Leg of the Triple Crown series, is up next on June 8th and will be held at Saratoga at the distance of 1 1/4 Miles, not the usual 1 1/2 Miles.
If you did not sign up for our Triple Crown series Picks you can sign up for our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks by Clicking here Now...
Payoffs were decent even with (4) winning favorites and (2) winning 2nd favorites. Average $2 Win payout was a nice $23.80 with the low being $3.20 and the high $79.40. The rain on the day resulted in 24 horses being Scratched as there were only 2 races that did not have any scratches. The many scratches did affect our selections in several races.
The Track was rated Muddy and the Turf Course Soft. Two races were taken off the Turf and moved to the main track. Our Top selection won in (2) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (7) additional races.
We Hit (7) Exacta winners R3 ($35.40, R6 ($36.00), R7 ($8.40), R10 ($30.60), R11 ($61.80), R13 ($119.40) and R14 ($38.00).
Total - $329.60 for $2 wagers. Cashed in on (3) Trifectas – Race 3 ($47.70), Race 6 ($41.30) and Race 7 ($19.50).
Total - $108.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (3) Superfectas in Race 3 ($251.70), Race 6 ($154.40) and Race 7 ($30.80).
Total - $436.90 in $1 wagers.
Hit (4) Daily Doubles – Race 3 ($32.30), Race 6 ($5.40), Race 9 ($8.30) and Race 11 ($48.10).
Total - $94.10 in $1 wagers.
Had (2) Pick 3s in Race 9 ($35.60) and Race 10 (88.95).
Total $124.55 in 50 CENT wagers. Grand Total Winning Wagers - $1,093.65.
(7) of our Longshots to use placed in the Superfecta. They were in Race 1 (3rd), Race 2 (2nd), Race 4 (3rd), Race 5 (3rd), Race 7 (2nd), Race 10 (4th) and Race 11 (Won). The Belmont Stakes, the final Leg of the Triple Crown series, is up next on June 8th and will be held at Saratoga at the distance of 1 1/4 Miles, not the usual 1 1/2 Miles.
If you did not sign up for our Triple Crown series Picks you can sign up for our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks by Clicking here Now...
Will We Get a Triple Crown Winner?
Who will win the 2024 Preakness Stakes? That is the big question!
Will there be a Triple Crown winner this year?
Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby and thus is the only horse that can win the Triple Crown this year.
There will be (2) other Kentucky Derby runners also showing up to take another shot at Mystik Dan along with (5) "New Shooters" that rested and ready to take on the KY Derby winner.
With the Preakness Stakes being 1/16th mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby you would think that Mystik Dan in the Preakness is a can not lose horse!
Did you know that in the last 18 years ONLY 5 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Preakness Stakes?
They were: Justify (2018), American Pharoah (2015), Caifornia Chrome (2014), I'll Have Another (2012) and Big Brown (2008).
Last year Mage (15-1) upset winner of the Kentucky Derby finished 3rd in the Preakness Stakes as the favorite!
There are (5) "New Shooters" that are rested and ready, are lining up to take their best shot at the Kentucky Derby winner. They are: Muth, Imagination, Tusca Gold, Seize the Grey, Mugatu and Uncle Heavy.
In handicapping the Preakness Stakes you need to include the NEW shooters who almost always have a say in the Exotic wagers (Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta).
Just like last year when National Treasure (3-1), trainer by Bob Baffert, was not allowed to participate in the Kentucky Derby, was well rested and won as the KY Derby winner Mage finished 3rd.
In 2022, it was Early Voting (6-1) that skipped the Kentucky Derby as trainer Chad Brown was looking to repeat his 2017 Preakness win by waiting for the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown to beat the KY Derby post time Favorite and Preakness favorite Epicenter (3/2) by 1 1/4 lengths and paid $13.40 for the win.
In 2022 when Rombauer (12-1), who skipped the Kentucky Derby, took on the Derby winner Medina Spirit and the two other runners coming back for the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown won by 3 1/2 lengths. The 41 Superfecta paid $1,025 with the (3) KY Derby runners finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
In 2020, the Filly Swiss Skydiver (12-1) (trained by Ken Mcpeek) jumped into the Triple Crown series and beat the Kentucky Derby winner Authentic by a neck as "New Shooters" Jesus Team (41-1) and Art Collector (5/2) finished 3rd and 4th. $1 Trifecta paid $1,205 and the $1 Superfecta paid $5,053.
In 2017 when "New Shooter" Cloud Computing (13-1) won the race and Senior Investment (31-1) finished 4th. The $1 Trifecta paid $1,097 and the $1 Superfecta paid $8,162 and the $1 Super High 5 paid $283,223!
In 2016 Cherry Wine (17-1) ran 2nd and Stradivari (8-1) finished 4th with the two favorites running 1st and 4th and the Exacta paid $88, Trifecta $146 and the Superfecta $317.
In 2015 with a small field of 8 runners, 3 of them being "New Shooters", 2 of them came in 2nd (28-1) and 3rd (12-1) to American Pharoah (4/5) the payoffs were: Exacta $124, Trifecta $985 & Superfecta $1,906!
Do you know which runners have the BEST chance of winning the Preakness Stakes?
Will it be Mystic Dan who will break this trend of KY Derby winners not being able to win the Preakness Stakes or will it be anothe "New Shooter" winning?
Favoritism will probably be between Mystic Dan and Muth.
Did you know that 11 of last 14 Preakness Favorites all LOST? They were Mage (2023), Epicenter (2022), Medina Spirit (2021), Authentic (2020), Improbable (2019), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), Orb (2013), Bodemeister (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011) and Super Saver (2010).
The Preakness Stakes is limited to 14 runners and it looks like we will have a good field of 9 going to the starting gate. (3) horses from the Kentucky Derby and (5) "New Shooters".
Do you know which of the new faces have the Pedigree for winning the Preakness Stakes?
If you are not aware of the importance of Pedigree for the Triple Crown races and it's importance for correctly picking the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta, then you need to get our Picks.
Just Like in the Kentucky Derby, there is a Winning Profile that has proven itself over the years at the Preakness and it is different from the KY Derby and Belmont Stakes Winning Profiles.
The Profile is included with our Preakness Stakes & Wagering strategy.
It is extremely difficult for 3-year old horses to meet the demands of 3 races at 3 different distancess at 3 different tracks over a period of just 5 weeks!
Thus the difficulty of winning the Triple Crown.
Most people think that the Pimlico track is a early running pace speed track and that horses coming from off the pace can not win the Preakness Stakes.
That was true at one-time, however, the folks at Pimlico have done an excellent job in recent years to eliminate this track bias. They have also widened the turns so they are not so sharp, which had also helped the speed horses. The turns are now more like Churchill Downs!
Unfortunately, a lot of jockeys still think they must be up front early in order to have a shot at winning the race. The big question is, who will try to go fast early and try to steal the race in a wire-to-wire sttempt like Gary Stevens did on Oxbow for D. Wayne Lukas in 2013?
Remember Magic Weisner in 2002?
He came from out of the clouds to just miss catching speedster War Emblem at odds of (45-1) and made for a very nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts ... Exacta $327, Trifecta $2,311 and the $1 Superfecta gave back $6,701.
Our Preakness Stakes Picks utilizes the Proven Winning Profile to identify those horses that have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
It has been successful in 17 of the last 25 years in picking the winner!
Not only has it picked the winner but also the Exacta in 19 of the last 25 years, the Trifecta in 16 of those 25 years and even hit the Superfecta in 11 of those!
Included with the Preakness Picks is our powerful wagering strategy for the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta tickets.
The key to making money on the Preakness Stakes is to hit the Trifecta and Superfecta tickets without requiring a large bankroll to get maximum coverage in a 14 horse field.
You will also be provided with a Link to download FREE Past Performances for all Preakness Stakes horses.
Mystik Dan (18-1) Hangs On for the Win!
The 150th Kentucky Derby was truly a historical race! Not only did it mark 150th edition of the “Run for the Roses” but it also produced the remarkable feat of the same trainer and jockey to win both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby since 1952 when trainer Ben Jones and Eddie Arcaro did it!
Congrats to Ken McPeek and Bian Hernandez Jr. for accomplishing such a feat.
The race finish was also one for the history books when Mystik Dan (18-1) was able to hang on for the win over the fast closing Sierra Leone (9/2) and Forever Young (Jpn) (7-1)by a nose. Furthermore was just another nose separating Sierra Leone and Forever Young (Jpn)!
That’s correct, just (2) Noses separating the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners at the wire.
Tyler Gaffalione was in very close quarters with Forever Young (Jpn) in the final strides that looked like he interfered with Forever Young (Jpn) enough that it cost him 2nd place or even the win. But o nclaim of foul was made and the steward took several minutes looking at the video and decided no foul had occurred.
The KEY to Mystik Dan’s victory was the rail-skimming ride given to him by jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. that saved the horse some distance by taking the inside tripe to the wire. It allowed him to hang on to the lead by a short nose and giving the jockey/trainer team the KY Oaks / Derby Double with Thorpedo Anna’s victory on Friday over a sloppy track.
It was the slimmest of margins in a Kentucky Derby since 1996 when Grindstone nosed out Cavonnier.
The (3-1) favorite, Fierceness hopped at the start and was forwardly placed in 3rd less than 1 length behind the pace setter Track Phantom as they raced together down the back stretch and into the final turn till coming to the top of the turn where he began to fade and finished a disappointing 15th.
All the while Mystik Dan was saving ground racing on the inside and squeezed through a narrow opening on the rail inside of Track Phantom as he was leaving the final turn and took over the lead at the top of the stretch and was clear with a furlong remaining digging in to fend off the furious late rallies of Sierra Leone and Forever Young (Jpn) at the wire for a nose victory!
Catching Freedom (8-1) finished 4th 4 ¾ lengths in front of the other Japanese horse T O Password (Jpn) (48-1).
The final time was a modest 2:03 2/5 which was 2 seconds slower than Mage’s last year.
With a crowd of 156,710 at the track the 14-race card which featured (7) Graded Stakes races generated a record handle of $210.7 Million on just the Derby race and a new record handle for the day’s (14) races of $320.5 Million which was a 11.1% increase from last year.
The Derby TV audience on NBC Sports was the largest since 1989 with a total of 16.7 million viewers up 13% from last year.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May 18th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Watch Video Race Replay of the 150th Kentucky Derby – Mystik Dan’s Upset Win!
In our Kentucky Derby Picks, we went with the favorite, Fierceness, for the first time in 24 years because we felt that he was something special with earning that 110 Beyer speed number in his last race and 105 two races prior which towered over the field. Big mistake and one I will not repeat in the future!
Favorites have not won in the last 5 years with none of them running worse than 5th.. Where did Fierceness finish? 15th which was a big disappointment.
He got out of the gate with just a minor hop at the start but was able to be in the first group of runners and looked like he could rate some but he was not able to as he kept racing within 1 length or less of the other two lead runners. As a result, when he got to leaving the final turn he began to fade and fade badly as he finished 15th.
Fierceness’ attempt to become the 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion to also win the Kentucky Derby, went down without having an impact in the finish of the race.
It will be interesting to see if he runs back in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga!
Based on our Derby Profile Points based scoring system, Fierceness was the Top scorer by far and thus became our pick to win.
Society Man, Forever Young (Jpn), Just a Touch and Track Phantom were our next highest scorers.
Our KY Derby wagering strategy, requires us to use 3-A, 3-B and 4-C runners with the As being most likely the winner with the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta and the Cs to be used in the bottom of the Trifecta and in the Superfecta.
We used Fierceness as our A1 horse and Forever Young (Jpn) and Endlessly as our A2 and A3 runners.
The B horses were Sierra Leone (B1), Catching Freedom (B2) and Mystik Dan as B3.
Our C horses were Resilience, Just a Touch and Honor Marie.
As you can see, we had all the Superfecta horses in our A and B selections. We just used the wrong one to win the race!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta pay off $258.56 by wheeling the Field on Top of Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
We also recommended an Exacta wager of boxing our B and C horses which would give you a second winning Exacta of $258.56.
In Our Full Card Picks:
Payoffs were decent even with (4) winning favorites, (1) favorite running 2nd and (1) winning 2nd favorite. Average $2 Win payout was a nice $18.91 with the low being $2.98 and the high $96.34.
Our Top selection won in (3) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (8) additional races.
We Hit (8) Exacta winners R2 ($16.94, R4 ($81.50), R6 ($13.20), R7 ($31.12), R8 ($80.44), R11 ($39.50), R12 ($258.56) and R14 (46.08).
Total - $567.34 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (2) Trifectas – Race 6 ($54.28) and Race 7 ($71.82).
Total - $126.10 in $1 wagers.
Also had (2) Superfectas in Race 6 ($308.40) and Race 7 ($353.19).
Total - $661.59 in $1 wagers.
Hit (8) Daily Doubles – Race 1 ($3.87), Race2 ($2.31), Race 3 ($9.87), Race 4 ($81.50), Race 5 ($23.95), Race 6 (13.02), Race 7 ($98.12) and Race 10 ($29.52).
Total - $262.15 in $1 wagers.
Had (6) Pick 3s in Race 1 ($3.55), Race 2 ($7.76), Race 3 ($45.97), Race 4 ($105.20), Race 5 (65.44) and Race 6 (119.16).
Total $347.08 in 50 CENT wagers.
Hit (2) Pick 4s – Race 2 ($84.80) and Race 4 ($447.16).
Total $531.96 in 50 CENT wagers.
Also had (2) Pick 5s – Race 1 ($234.54) and Race 3 ($687.86).
Total $922.40.
Grand Total Won - $3,418.62.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May18th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
If you did not sign up for our Triple Crown series Picks you can sign up for our Preakness Stakes & Full Card picks by Clicking here Now...