Keys to Handicapping the 2024 Kentucky Derby!
to see Kentucky Derby Points Prep Race Schedule Click Here...to see Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 Pool Entries Click Here...
to see Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard Click Here...
NEWS ALERTS:
Deterministic is OUT of the Kentucky Derby!
No More Time is OUT of the KY Derby Due to Injury!
Timberlake is OUT of Kentucky Derby Consideration!
T O Password (Jpn) Points Leader in Japan Road to KY Derby will Run for the Roses!
Endlessly may Now Run in KY Derby but Still may Move to Turf Racing.
Locked is OFF the Triple Crown Trail due to Knee Injury!
After the completion of 37 Prep races awarding points for finishing 1st - 5th, this year's Kentucky Derby field is being called one of the most competive in recent years.
Fierceness has been the Favorite in (3) of the six Future Wager Pools and the 2nd favorite in 2 others as he was the run away winner of the Florida Derby winning by 13 1/2 lengths!
He is the 2nd highest Points leader on the KY Derby Leader Board with 136 topped only by Sierra Leone's 155 Points who was the Favorite in (2) of the Future Wager Pools and won the Blue Grass Stakes as the favorite.
Of the Big 6 Kentucky Derby Prep races, the Florida Derby has produced the most winners in the last 20 years with (7).
Fierceness will no doubt be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby as he will be attempting to become just the 3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion to also win the Kentucky Derby!
It is looking like trainer Todd Pletcher will have ONLY (1) horse to make the Derby field this year. Usually he has (3) or (4) which could mean he is just focused on Fierceness to wear the Roses on the 1st Saturday in May.
Trainer Chad Brown is looking to have (3) horses make the starting field with Catching Freedom, Just a Touch and Encino!
More times than not when you have closely matched runners in a race of 20 horses, surprises tend to happen! This makes for a difficult handicapping puzzle that needs to be resolved.
Remember last year when Mage (15-1) and Rich Strike (81-1) in 2022 when they UPSET the field coming on late to catch the leaders from the back of the field?
The top Points leader has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2014 which was the second year of the Points based system - this is not good news for Sierra Leone.
This is what also makes handicapping the Kentucky Derby so very difficult.
When any (almost) of the runners have a legitimate shot at taking down the Run for the Roses, it becomes difficult to separate them.
What you need is a Proven and Thought-out system for handicapping the big 20 horse field and a wagering strategy for betting on the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta tickets that gives you the most coverage for the least amount of dollars!
That is what you get with the "Proven Winning Derby Profile" - it will help you to Cash-in on the biggest day of horse racing, the kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby Points Based Entry System
With the current Points based system, the Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last September with the running of the Iroquis Stakes at Churchill Downs!
After 30 years of using the graded stakes earnings to determine the 20 horse Derby field, 2023 was the first year Churchill Downs switched to the new tiered points based system that would be accumulated over a 35 race series. The previous system included 185 Graded Stakes races where earnings could be accumulated.
In those (11) years, the Point System has produced (7) post time FAVORITES as the Kentucky Derby winner! In 2019 the winner, Maximum Security (the favorite) was Disqualified from the win and placed 17th.
Prior to that there were ONLY (3) winning Favorites in the previous years!
The Point system de-values the 2-year old racing campaign and places more value in the final prep races known as the Big 6. These races are also known as the 100 Point races as the winner earns 100 Derby Points and automatic entry to the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May!
The Point system also eliminates Graded Sprint races from the qualifying prep races (which pushes trainers to run 2-turn races before they would like).
The Point System has been divided into 3 segments. They are the Prep Season with 22 races, Championship Series with 15 races and the Wild Card race, the Lexington stakes.
Last year changes were made to award points to the top 5 finishers. Previous years it was just the top 4. This year they slightly modified how many points are being offered for finishing 2nd - 5th. This was done to grow "Derby Fever" for more horses and ownership which could increase the field sizes in the Prep Races as more connections will feel that they have a better chance of making it into the starting gate on the First Saturday in May! The Prep Series now awards with 10-5-3-2-1 pointsfor 1st - 5th finishing positions, (with the exception of th BC-Juvenile which gets 30-15-9-6-3), (7) Championship Series races awards 50-25-15-10-5 points and (8) races at 100-40-30-20-10 points. The Wild Card race. the Lexington S. awards just 20-10-6-4-2 points as the last Prep race of the Series! This will be the 7th year for the "European Road to th Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (7) race series held in Europe at seven different tracks. If none of the European horses come over to run, their reserved spot will revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board. Also for the 7th year there will be a "Japan Road to the Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (4) race series held in Japan. If none of the Japan horses come over to run, their reserved spot will also revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board.
The Point System has been divided into 3 segments. They are the Prep Season with 22 races, Championship Series with 15 races and the Wild Card race, the Lexington stakes.
Last year changes were made to award points to the top 5 finishers. Previous years it was just the top 4. This year they slightly modified how many points are being offered for finishing 2nd - 5th. This was done to grow "Derby Fever" for more horses and ownership which could increase the field sizes in the Prep Races as more connections will feel that they have a better chance of making it into the starting gate on the First Saturday in May! The Prep Series now awards with 10-5-3-2-1 pointsfor 1st - 5th finishing positions, (with the exception of th BC-Juvenile which gets 30-15-9-6-3), (7) Championship Series races awards 50-25-15-10-5 points and (8) races at 100-40-30-20-10 points. The Wild Card race. the Lexington S. awards just 20-10-6-4-2 points as the last Prep race of the Series! This will be the 7th year for the "European Road to th Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (7) race series held in Europe at seven different tracks. If none of the European horses come over to run, their reserved spot will revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board. Also for the 7th year there will be a "Japan Road to the Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (4) race series held in Japan. If none of the Japan horses come over to run, their reserved spot will also revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board.
To see the current list of Top 2024 Derby Point Leaders click here now.
Winners and 2nd place finishers will determine most of the 20 horses starting field in the Kentucky Derby. It is projected that if you have accumulated 35 points or more, you will be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows those horses(s) with the next highest points to get in. With more runners earning Points this year, the bottom 20% of the Derby starting field will be much more bunched together in total points which should result in larger fields than normal in the final 8 Prep races.
In 2022 Rich Strike got in at the last minute because of a late withdrawal with just 21 Points and won the Kentucky Derby at 81-1 odds!
Be sure to give extra consideration to the last two runners that make the Derby field!
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 15 (50/100 pt.) big prep races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in just 1 or 2 prep-races you should earn enough points to finish in the top 20.
Last year Mage (15-1) did not win any Points Pre race but did finish 2nd in the 100 Pt. Florida Derby and 4th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
In 2022 Rich Strike (81-1) did not win any of the Points Prep races but earned enough by finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and 4th in the John Battaglia Mem. S. In 2019 Country House (65-1), the appointed winner, did not win any of the Prep-races but did run 3rd, 4th and 2nd in 3 races!
In 2022 Rich Strike (81-1) did not win any of the Points Prep races but earned enough by finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and 4th in the John Battaglia Mem. S. In 2019 Country House (65-1), the appointed winner, did not win any of the Prep-races but did run 3rd, 4th and 2nd in 3 races!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign. He would still make the Derby field under the new Points system.
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) ... ALL of whom would still make the Kentucky Derby starting gate under the Point based system.
Since the implementation of the Points based system in 2013 (7) of the (11) KY Derby winners won a 100 Point Prep race as their last race prior. But (4) of the last (5) did not.
They were Mage (15-1), Rich Strike (81-1), Medina Spirit (12-1) and Country House (65-1).
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager concept first began way back in 1999, 26 years agao. It started with just 3 Pools until 2014 when it expanded to 4 and in 2016 the Sire Pool was added. In 2021 the number of Pools was expanded to 5 and in 2023 a 6th Pool was added!
The number of entries in each pool was expanded from the imitial 24 to a total of 40. This could result in larger odds/payouts because of the dollars wagered being spread over a lot more runners!
The concept of the Future Wager Pools is to provide the opportunity to horse racing fans to wager "potential" contenders in the Kentucky Derby before the races' final entrants are determined.
It provides fns the opportunity to wager early in the Derby Prep race season on horses whom they think have the potential to make the starting gate on the 1st Saturday in May and go on to win the "Run for the Roses"!
Future Wager bets usually offer larger payouts than wagering on the same horse on Derby day since it is not yet known which horses will actually qualify to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Just remember if the horse (s) that you wager on do NOT make it into the Derby starting gate you lose your wager as there is no such thing as Scratches like on normal racing days where you get a refund!
Click Here to see final odds for all completed Future Wager Pools.
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 6th that have left us all confused - with so many big efforts put in by the winners of each prep race along with a lack of clarity with 2nd, 3rd and 4th place runners!
Which runners will have the best chance of winning the 150th Kentucky Derby?
One thing tht does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Derby Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns as well as their pedigree lines that have been found to be critical if you want to win the KY Derby!
Even though Justify broke the 137 year Apollo Curse five years ago, winning the KY Derby without having raced as a 2-year old . That was followed up last year with Mage accomplishing the same feat. Do not look for this to become a new trend for winning the KY Derby.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and race experience, it becomes just too difficult for them to win the tiring 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby early in their 3-year old career!
Pedigree is critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!cme.
Did you know that 45 of the last 72 1st and 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?
It gets even better ... 22 of the last 26 Derby winners had this powerful pedigree!
In 17 of the past 21 Kentucky Derby(s) the winner had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait.
That is correct, Mage (2023), Medina Spirit (2021), Authentic (2020), Maximum Security (2019 - DQ'd), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002) and Monarchos (2001) all had it.
It gets even better ... 22 of the last 26 Derby winners had this powerful pedigree!
In 17 of the past 21 Kentucky Derby(s) the winner had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait.
That is correct, Mage (2023), Medina Spirit (2021), Authentic (2020), Maximum Security (2019 - DQ'd), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002) and Monarchos (2001) all had it.
Last year 3 of the 4 finishers in the Superfecta, Mage (1st), Angel of Empire (3rd) and Angel of Empire (4th) had the powerful "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. $1 Superfecta paid $15,643.
The same happened in 2022, Medina Spirit (1st), Mandaloun (2nd) and Essential Quality (4th). The $1 Superfecta paid $7,925.
In 2019 3 of the top 4 runners qualified with this pedigree trait, Maximum Security, Code of Honor and Improbable had this KEY pedigree. In 2016 Nyquist, Gun Runner and Mohaymen all carried this pedigree trait. In 2015 American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. In 2013 the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463! In 2010 the Top (4) finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285! In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome / Large-Heart pedigree. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60.
In 2002 ALL 4 of the Top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 ..... The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for the pumping of more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death, an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
In 2019 3 of the top 4 runners qualified with this pedigree trait, Maximum Security, Code of Honor and Improbable had this KEY pedigree. In 2016 Nyquist, Gun Runner and Mohaymen all carried this pedigree trait. In 2015 American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. In 2013 the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463! In 2010 the Top (4) finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285! In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome / Large-Heart pedigree. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60.
In 2002 ALL 4 of the Top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 ..... The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for the pumping of more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death, an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 22 of the past 37 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or came in 2nd? (13 of those Won).
The 2006 winner Nyquist had this CRITICAL pedigree.
In 2015 Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah and the 4th place finisher Frosted had the Buckpasser pedigree.
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner and 2nd Place runners, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodline and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.oo and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!d!
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline in the correct position and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline in the correct position and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
Did you know that 26 of the past 41 winners (63%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn-To?
13 of the last 21 Derby winners had this pedigree. Mage (2023), Medina Spirit (2021), Country House (2019), Justify (2018), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
Last year Mage, Two Phil's, Angel of Empire and Disarm ALL had this pedigree! Exacta paid $330, Trifecta $982 and the Superfecta a big $15,643 for a $1 wager.
In 2019 Country House, Code of Honor and Improbable ALL had this powerful pedigree!
In 2018 Justify, Good Magic and Instilled Regard ALL had this Critical pedigree.
In 2017 the Top 4 finishers had this pedigree bloodline factor. The Exacta paid $336, Trifecta was $16,594 and the Superfecta paid $75,974.
In 2016 the top 4 finishers ALL had this pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $30.60, Trifecta was $173 and the Superfecta paid $1,084.
In 200s ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers also had this pedigree factor. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines in the proper position for inheritance?
OF COURSE YOU DO!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses to wager on. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that are necessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
With 20 horse fiel size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset, (like the last 4 of last 5 years - Mage (15-1), Rich Strike (81-1), Medina Spirit (12-1), Country House (65-1)), with longshot runners winning and others finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Proven Winning Derby Profile
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814. The Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-mony! He was not our top pick but was one we usedd in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta plays.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the first time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
Here are the 10 Year Averages for payouts in the Kentucky Derby:
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 19 of last 25 Kentucky Derby winners!
Mage, (2023), Rich Strike (2022), Country House (2019), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) ALL had the FACTOR in their favor ,,,,
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
This time of year there are more uninformed, once a year players that bet on the names of horses, the number of horse or the jokey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
Don't be one of them ....
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzle is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders that provides the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts.
What is important is that you have a proven, thoughtout method of separating the Contenders from the Pretenders so that you can wager on the biggest horse race in America with CONFIDENCE!
The Proven Winning Derby Profile consists of the most critical FACTORS that have been found in Kentucky Derby winners over the past 30 plus years. These FACTORS prove themselves year-in and year-out to be the BEST method for ranking the Derby runners!