Keys to Handicapping the 2025 Kentucky Derby!
With the current Points based system, the Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last September with the running of the Iroquis Stakes at Churchill Downs!
After 30 years of using the graded stakes earnings to determine the 20 horse Derby field, 2013 was the first year Churchill Downs switched to the new tiered points based system that would be accumulated over a 35 race series. The previous system included 185 Graded Stakes races where earnings could be accumulated.
In those (12) years, the Point System has produced (7) post time FAVORITES as the Kentucky Derby winner! In 2019 the winner, Maximum Security (the favorite) was Disqualified from the win and placed 17th.
Prior to that there were ONLY (3) winning Favorites in the previous years!
The Point system de-values the 2-year old racing campaign and places more value in the final prep races known as the Big 6. These races are also known as the 100 Point races as the winner earns 100 Derby Points and automatic entry to the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May!
The Point system also eliminates Graded Sprint races from the qualifying prep races (which pushes trainers to run 2-turn races before they would like).
The Point System has been divided into 3 segments. They are the Prep Season with 22 races, Championship Series with 15 races and the Wild Card race, the Lexington stakes.
In 2023 changes were made to award points to the top 5 finishers. Previous years it was just the top 4. Last year they slightly modified how many points were being offered for finishing 2nd - 5th. This was done to grow "Derby Fever" for more horses and ownership which could increase the field sizes in the Prep Races as more connections will feel that they have a better chance of making it into the starting gate on the First Saturday in May! The Prep Series now awards with 10-5-3-2-1 pointsfor 1st - 5th finishing positions, (with the exception of th BC-Juvenile which gets 30-15-9-6-3), (7) Championship Series races awards 50-25-15-10-5 points and (8) races at 100-40-30-20-10 points. The Wild Card race. the Lexington S. awards just 20-10-6-4-2 points as the last Prep race of the Series! This will be the 8th year for the "European Road to th Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (8) race series held in Europe at seven different tracks. If none of the European horses come over to run, their reserved spot will revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board. Also for the 8th year there will be a "Japan Road to the Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (4) race series held in Japan. If none of the Japan horses come over to run, their reserved spot will also revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board.
The Point System has been divided into 3 segments. They are the Prep Season with 22 races, Championship Series with 15 races and the Wild Card race, the Lexington stakes.
In 2023 changes were made to award points to the top 5 finishers. Previous years it was just the top 4. Last year they slightly modified how many points were being offered for finishing 2nd - 5th. This was done to grow "Derby Fever" for more horses and ownership which could increase the field sizes in the Prep Races as more connections will feel that they have a better chance of making it into the starting gate on the First Saturday in May! The Prep Series now awards with 10-5-3-2-1 pointsfor 1st - 5th finishing positions, (with the exception of th BC-Juvenile which gets 30-15-9-6-3), (7) Championship Series races awards 50-25-15-10-5 points and (8) races at 100-40-30-20-10 points. The Wild Card race. the Lexington S. awards just 20-10-6-4-2 points as the last Prep race of the Series! This will be the 8th year for the "European Road to th Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (8) race series held in Europe at seven different tracks. If none of the European horses come over to run, their reserved spot will revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board. Also for the 8th year there will be a "Japan Road to the Derby" prep races. One spot in the Kentucky Derby field will be reserved for the Top Point earner in a (4) race series held in Japan. If none of the Japan horses come over to run, their reserved spot will also revert back to the U.S. Points Leader Board.
To see the current list of Top 2025 Derby Point Leaders click here now.
Winners and 2nd place finishers will determine most of the 20 horses starting field in the Kentucky Derby. It is projected that if you have accumulated 35 points or more, you will be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows those horses(s) with the next highest points to get in. With more runners earning Points this year, the bottom 20% of the Derby starting field will be much more bunched together in total points which should result in larger fields than normal in the final 8 Prep races.
In 2022 Rich Strike got in at the last minute because of a late withdrawal with just 21 Points and won the Kentucky Derby at 81-1 odds!
Be sure to give extra consideration to the last two runners that make the Derby field!
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 15 (50/100 pt.) big prep races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in just 1 or 2 prep-races you should earn enough points to finish in the top 20.
Last year Mystic Dan (18-1) ran 3rd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the Southwest Stakes.
In 2023 Mage (15-1) did not win any Points Prep race but did finish 2nd in the 100 Pt. Florida Derby and 4th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.In 2022 Rich Strike (81-1) did not win any of the Points Prep races but earned enough by finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and 4th in the John Battaglia Mem. S.
In 2019 Country House (65-1), the appointed winner, did not win any of the Prep-races but did run 3rd, 4th and 2nd in 3 races!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign. He would still make the Derby field under the new Points system.
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1) ... ALL of whom would still make the Kentucky Derby starting gate under the Point based system.
Since the implementation of the Points based system in 2013 (7) of the (12) KY Derby winners won a 100 Point Prep race as their last race prior. But (5) of the last (6) did not.
They were Mystik Dan (18-1), Mage (15-1), Rich Strike (81-1), Medina Spirit (12-1) and Country House (65-1).
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 3rd that will leave us all confused - with so many big efforts put in by the winners of each prep race along with a lack of clarity with 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place runners!
Which runners will have the best chance of winning the 151st Kentucky Derby?
One thing tht does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Derby Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns as well as their pedigree lines that have been found to be critical if you want to win the KY Derby!
Even though Justify broke the 137 year Apollo Curse five years ago, winning the KY Derby without having raced as a 2-year old . That was followed in 2023 with Mage accomplishing the same feat. Do not look for this to become a new trend for winning the KY Derby as Mystik Dan showed last year.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and race experience, it becomes just too difficult for them to win the tiring 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby early in their 3-year old career!
Pedigree is critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
The Proven Winning Derby Profile is the Key to Picking the Winner!
Last year 3 of the 4 finishers in the Superfecta, Sierra Leone (2nd), Forever Young (Jpn) (3rd) and Catching Freedom (4th) had the powerful "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. $1 Superfecta paid $8,254.
In 2023 the same happened with Mage (1st), Angel of Empire (3rd) and Disarm (4th) with the $1 Superfecta paying $15,643.
The same happened in 2022, Medina Spirit (1st), Mandaloun (2nd) and Essential Quality (4th). The $1 Superfecta paid $7,925.
In 2019 3 of the top 4 runners qualified with this pedigree trait, Maximum Security, Code of Honor and Improbable had this KEY pedigree. In 2016 Nyquist, Gun Runner and Mohaymen all carried this pedigree trait. In 2015 American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. In 2013 the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463! In 2010 the Top (4) finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285! In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome / Large-Heart pedigree. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60.
In 2002 ALL 4 of the Top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 ..... The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for the pumping of more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death, an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
In 2019 3 of the top 4 runners qualified with this pedigree trait, Maximum Security, Code of Honor and Improbable had this KEY pedigree. In 2016 Nyquist, Gun Runner and Mohaymen all carried this pedigree trait. In 2015 American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree trait. In 2013 the top (3) finishers ALL had the "Large-Heart" pedigree. The Exacta paid $981 and the $1 Trifecta paid $3,463! In 2010 the Top (4) finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285! In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome / Large-Heart pedigree. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60.
In 2002 ALL 4 of the Top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 ..... The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for the pumping of more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death, an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 22 of the past 38 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in the proper position of their bloodline Won or came in 2nd? (13 of those Won).
The 2006 winner Nyquist had this CRITICAL pedigree.
In 2015 Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah and the 4th place finisher Frosted had the Buckpasser pedigree.
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner and 2nd Place runners, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodline and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.oo and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!d!
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline in the correct position and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline in the correct position and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
Did you know that 26 of the past 42 winners (62%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn-To?
13 of the last 22 Derby winners had this pedigree. Mage (2023), Medina Spirit (2021), Country House (2019), Justify (2018), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
In 2023 Mage, Two Phil's, Angel of Empire and Disarm ALL had this pedigree! Exacta paid $330, Trifecta $982 and the Superfecta a big $15,643 for a $1 wager.
In 2019 Country House, Code of Honor and Improbable ALL had this powerful pedigree!
In 2018 Justify, Good Magic and Instilled Regard ALL had this Critical pedigree.
In 2017 the Top 4 finishers had this pedigree bloodline factor. The Exacta paid $336, Trifecta was $16,594 and the Superfecta paid $75,974.
In 2016 the top 4 finishers ALL had this pedigree trait. The Exacta paid $30.60, Trifecta was $173 and the Superfecta paid $1,084.
In 200s ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers also had this pedigree factor. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines in the proper position for inheritance?
OF COURSE YOU DO!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses to wager on. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that are necessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
With 20 horse fiel size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset, (like the last 5 of last 6 years - Mystik Dan (18-1), Mage (15-1), Rich Strike (81-1), Medina Spirit (12-1), Country House (65-1)), with longshot runners winning and others finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Proven Winning Derby Profile
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814. The Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-mony! He was not our top pick but was one we usedd in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta plays.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the first time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
Here are the 10 Year Averages for payouts in the Kentucky Derby:
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 209 of last 26 Kentucky Derby winners!
Mystik Dan (2024), Mage, (2023), Rich Strike (2022), Country House (2019), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014), Orb (2012), Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) ALL had the FACTOR in their favor ,,,,
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
This time of year there are more uninformed, once a year players that bet on the names of horses, the number of horse or the jokey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey or trainer that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
Don't be one of them ....
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzle is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders that provides the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts.
What is important is that you have a proven, thoughtout method of separating the Contenders from the Pretenders so that you can wager on the biggest horse race in America with CONFIDENCE!
The Proven Winning Derby Profile consists of the most critical FACTORS that have been found in Kentucky Derby winners over the past 30 plus years. These FACTORS prove themselves year-in and year-out to be the BEST method for ranking the Derby runners!