Results of Our 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks!
Congrats to Sovereignty Winning over Journalism in the 151st Kentucky Derby!
Before a rain soaked crowd of 147,046, witnessed a fantastic finish of Sovereignty (9-1) making his signature late closing run to catch and pass the leaders from 17th in a field of 19 to take down the first Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
After a slight bobble at the start, he settled 9+ lengths behind the pace setters who were putting in quick fractions lead by Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise and Owen Almighty.
All the while, Journalism (3-1) was saving ground racing 2-3 lengths in front of the winner near the inside till he shifted out inside the five-eighths pole where he began picking off the leaders through the 2nd turn then moved 5 wide and put his head in front inside the three-sixteenths pole as Sovereignty was following him throughout his advance and was able to over take him in the final yards to win by 1 1/2 lengths!
It was another 1 1/2 lengths back to the fast closing Baeza in 3rd who finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Final Gambit in 4th who was racing in last early on as he too made a big closing effort to hit the Superfecta.
It was a record setting day for Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin barn as they won their first Kentucky Derby as well as winning the Kentucky Oaks on Friday with the undefeated Good Cheer along with winning a Double Classic at Newmarket Racecourse in UK when they won the G1 2000 Guineas with Ruling Court and the G1 1000 Guineas with the Undefeated Desert Flower (Ire) on Saturday.
Jockey Junior Alvarado gave Sovereignty a perfect ride saving ground into the first turn and did not make his winning move too early as he waited till they turned for home to put him in high gear. It was trainer Bill Mott's 2nd KY Derby winner but first win with the first horse to cross the line!
NBC, Peacock broadcast averaged 17.7 million viewers as it was the largest viewership since 1989 when Sunday Silence won the Kentucky Derby.
Record all-sources wagering was set with $349 Million up 12.2 percent. All-sources on the Derby race was a record $234.4 Million.
The final time was a quick 2:02.31 which was the Fastest on a Sloppy track of the last 8 times the Derby was run a Sloppy surface! The next fastest was Mine That Bird in 2009.
Preakness Stakes is up next May 17 as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
Watch Video Race Replay of the 151st Kentucky Derby - Sovereignty (8-1) Wins.
In Our KY Derby Picks:
We made Burnham Square (12-1 ML) our Top as he was in the Proven Winning Derby Profile's top 5 point scorers based on the 23 categories used to identify the most likely horses to Win and be in the Exacta. The other top scorers were Grande (20-1 ML), Rodriguez (12-1 ML), Journalism (3-1 ML) and Publisher (20-1 ML).
We explained how Journalism was the horse to beat as he looked to be the best in the field but we do not like using the Favorite as our to pick in the Kentucky Derby and thus felt that Burnham Square would be the best choice of our top 5 scorers.
Our Derby wagering strategy requires us to use 3-A, 3-B and 4-C runners with the As being most likely for the Win, the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta and the Cs to be used in the bottom of the Trifecta and in the Superfecta.
We used Burnham Square as our A1 horse and Journalism and Grande as our A2 and A3 runners.
Our B horses were Sovereignty (B1), Luxor Cafe (B2) and Rodriguez as B3.
The C horses were Sandman (C1), Chunk of Gold (C2), Tiztastic (C3) and Final Gambit (C4).
In our Picks we said if there are any Scratches, add #21 Baeza to the bottom and moveryone up to fill in.
When Rodriguez (B3) and Grande (A3) were Scratched our adjusted order of runners for our wagering strategy became: Burnham Square, Journalism and Sovereignty as our As, Luxor Cafe, Sandman, and Chunk of Gold as our Bs and Tixtastic, Final Gambit and Baeza as ou Cs.
Based on our recommended wagers, this adjusted order is what allowed us to cashin on the $2 Exacta ($48), $1 Trifecta ($231) and $1 Superfecta ($1,682) even though Burnham Square could only finish 6th.
Burnham Square was bumped at the start but then settled in hand and tucked in saving ground and was in striking distance of the leaders but then Admire Daytona (Jpn) came in on him at the half mile pole, was bumped and checked losing position but then his jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr.got him back in stride, then had to move him out to start weaving through traffic on the second turn and was able to move up to get 6th
Jockey Hernandez, Jr. said "he actually ran a really, really good race ...... we lost all momemtum but then ran on big down the lane ..... ".
Trainer Ian Wilkes said, "I thought he ran a terrific race. He got stopped at the half-mile pole when everybody else was making their move and then he got going again to get sixth. Without the trouble, I think he would have been in the top three".
In Our Full Card Picks:
Due to the Sloppy/Sealed track and the Turf course rated Good, payoffs were very low as there were (7) winning favorites, (3) second favorite along with (1) favorite finishing 2nd in the 14 races!
Our Top selection won in (4) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (5) additional races.
We Hit (8) Exacta winners in R1 ($99.64), R2 ($39.36), R3 ($34.12), R8 ($15.20, R9 ($32.48), R12 ($48.32), R13 ($13.18) and R14 ($12.10).
Total - $294.40 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (4) Trifectas - R8 ($32.96), R9 ($63.72), R12 ($231.12) and R14 ($37.72).
Total - $365.52 in $1 wagers.
Hit (3) Superfectas in R8 ($125.92), R9 ($662.82) and R12 ($1,682.27).
Total - $2,471.01 in $1 wagers.
Cashed (7) Daily Doubles - R3 ($48.26), R8 ($16.01), R9 ($10.96), R11 ($26.96), R12 ($19.34), R13 (5.40) and the Oaks/Derby Dbl (15.78).
Total - $99.00.
Hit (3) Pick 3s in R8 ($48.26), R11 ($39.46) and R12 ($26.98).
Total - $114.70.
Cashed (1) Pick 4 in R11 ($117.01).
Total $117.01.
Grand Total Won - $3,461.64.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May 17 as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.