2023 Belmont Stakes Recap & Picks Results!
Congrats to Arcangelo's Belmont Stakes Win!
It was a week long celebration of the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat's record setting 31 length win in the Belmont Stakes and before the celebration was complete more history was being made with the 2023 win by Arcangelo (7-1)!
As his trainer, Jena Antonucci became the first woman trainer to win a Triple Crown Series race. Ten women had previously run horses in the Belmont Stakes with their best being a 2nd in 1988. This was also her very fist attempt to win a Grade 1 race let alone it be the Belmont Stakes with a $1.5 Million purse.
Even more history was made on Saturday when jockey Javier Castellano also won his first Belmont Stakes after winning his first Kentucky Derby 5 weeks ago with Mage. Both of those Triple Crown Series races had eluded the Hall of Fame jockey for many years!
Castellano gave Arcahgelo a perfect ride as he saved ground into the first turn just behind the pace setters National Treasure and Tapit Shoes. Down the back stretch he dropped back a little briefly and then made up what he lost with 7 furlongs to go. Castellano then got him closer to the leaders settling in a pressing position with 5 furlongs remaining. He then tucked to the inside with 9/16 to go to the finish. Then moved up midway in the final turn to get to even terms with National Treasure with 5/16 remaing as he held off the fast closing Forte (2-1) to win by 1 1/2 lengths!
The Favorite Forte ran a fantastic race after having not raced in 10 weeks. Irad Ortiz Jr. gave him a terrific ride after having raced near the back of the field in 6th. He had to rally wide in the turn and was 7 wide in the stretch as he nosed out his stablemate Tapit Trice (5-1) for 2nd. It was another 3/4 length back to Hit Show (9-1) and Angel of Empire (7/2) in a Deadheat for 4th.
Owner Jon Ebbert got a good return on his $50,000 investment he had to make to supplement Arcangelo to the Belmont Stakes as he was not nominated to the Triple Crown Series. Arcangelo's share of the purse was $900,000.
Time of the 1 1/2 mile race was 2:29 1/5 which was 5 1/5 seconds slower than Secretariat's time in 1973.
Record handle of $118,283,455 for a non-Triple Crown year was set, up 20%, with $56,533,820 wagered on the Belmont Stakes itself. Attendance was 48,089.
Our Belmont Stakes Picks:
We felt that the race would go through National Treasure, the Preakness Stakes winner, as he looked to be the Lone Speed runner in the race and that it would just be if there would be enough early pressure to make him work hard enough to tire out in the stretch.
The big unknown was how the Favorite Forte would perform after having not raced in 10 weeks because of his scratch in the Kentucky Derby! As it turned out he did very well closing from near the back of the field to get up for 2nd only 1 1/2 lengths benind the winner.
The preferred running style to win the Belmont Stakes is a horse that can be within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 Mile as you do not want to too far behind.
As a result we felt that Tapit Trice (5-1) had an excellent shot at winning the race over the other runners and give Todd Pletcher his 5th win in the Belmont Stakes and possible take down the Exacta with Forte just like he did last year with Mo Donegal and Nest.
We liked the pedigree of Tapit Trice as he had the "X-Chromosome" of War Admiral or Mahmoud and a DI under 4.00 at 3.92 as well as being sired by the great Tapit who has produced 4 winners in the last 9 years along with 2 runnerups and 2 3rd place finishers!
We felt that his 7th place finish in the Kentucky Derby was good enough that with the 5 weeks to prepare for the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series he would show a lot of improvement as he was looking good in the morning works.
National Treasure did get early pressure from Tapit Shoes (21-1) and Hit Show (9-1) for the first 1/2 mile with Arcangelo not far behind them. All the while Tapit Trice and Forte were moving up to get into a pressing position coming out of the final turn.
As it turned out, Pletcher was not able to get his 5th Belmont Stakes but did finish 2nd and 3rd with Forte and Tapit Trice only separated by a short nose!
We felt that Tapit Trice would finish better than Forte and thus we made him our TOP Pick to win the race.
Our wagering strategy requires us to use 1-A, 2-B and 3-C runners in a short (9) horse field with the A being most likely the winner and the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta with the Cs to make up the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.
Our A runner was Tapit Trice (A1 3-1).
The B horses were Hit Show (B1 10-1) and Forte (B2 - 5/2) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selection!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the the Trifecta & Superfecta) were National Treasure (C1 - 5-1), Red Route One (C2 - 15-1) and Arcangelo (C3 - 8-1). WE did not like Arcangelo to win because of his very high Dosage Index (DI) of 8.60 as most Belmont Stakes winners had a DI less than 4.00. This is an indication that it may be more difficult for him to get the 1 1/2 mile distance. What was on his side was that he had the Raise A Native top sire side pedigree line. In the past 32 years 7 winners had a DI greater than 3.00 (only 1 in the past 18 years) and 5 of the 7 had the Raise A Native side side pedigree!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta for $68.00 & we missed the Trifecta and Superfecta by a Head when Tapit Trice got beaten out for 2nd by Forte.
The payouts were very Low because 2 of the 3 top favorites hit the Trifecta and 3 of 4 favorites in the Superfecta and it was a small field of just 9 runners. Exacta paid $68.00, $1 Trifecta paid $266.48 with the $1 Superfecta(s) as there was a Deadheat for 4th paid $292.50 and $191.50.
Our A runner was Tapit Trice (A1 3-1).
The B horses were Hit Show (B1 10-1) and Forte (B2 - 5/2) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selection!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the the Trifecta & Superfecta) were National Treasure (C1 - 5-1), Red Route One (C2 - 15-1) and Arcangelo (C3 - 8-1). WE did not like Arcangelo to win because of his very high Dosage Index (DI) of 8.60 as most Belmont Stakes winners had a DI less than 4.00. This is an indication that it may be more difficult for him to get the 1 1/2 mile distance. What was on his side was that he had the Raise A Native top sire side pedigree line. In the past 32 years 7 winners had a DI greater than 3.00 (only 1 in the past 18 years) and 5 of the 7 had the Raise A Native side side pedigree!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta for $68.00 & we missed the Trifecta and Superfecta by a Head when Tapit Trice got beaten out for 2nd by Forte.
The payouts were very Low because 2 of the 3 top favorites hit the Trifecta and 3 of 4 favorites in the Superfecta and it was a small field of just 9 runners. Exacta paid $68.00, $1 Trifecta paid $266.48 with the $1 Superfecta(s) as there was a Deadheat for 4th paid $292.50 and $191.50.
It has now been 7 of the last 8 years that we had a different winner in each Leg of the Triple Crown Series! When will we see a horse with the stamina to compete in 2 or more Legs of the series?
Our Full Card Belmont Stakes Day Picks:
We had a good day with our Picks even though there were (9) winning Favorites and there were just (3) races with six or fewer horses!
Our Top selection won in (4) races and in our Top 4 selections in (8) other races.
Our Top selection won in (4) races and in our Top 4 selections in (8) other races.
We Hit (7) Exacta winners. Race 3 ($26.80), R4 ($58.00), R7 ($17.40), R8 ($37.80), R9 ($66.50), R10 ($12.80) and R12 ($68.00).
Total - $287.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (4) Trifectas - Race 3 ($29.24), Race 4 ($218.38), R7 ($36.50) and Race 10 ($37.00).
Total - $321.12 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in R2 ($3,250), R3 ($52), R5 ($355), R7 ($106) and R10 ($154).
Total - $3,917 in $1 wagers.
Hit (10) Daily Doubles - Race 2 ($18.60), Race 3 ($6.80), Race 4 ($34.25), R5 ($36.75), R6 ($16.50), R7 ($9.60), R9 ($8.80), R10 ($4.50) and R11 ($35.50).
Total - $252.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (11) Pick 3s in R1 ($54.50), R2 ($83.50), R3 ($71.25), R4 ($167.50), R5 ($123.75), R6 ($13.40), R7 ($47.25), R8 ($28.75). R9 ($23.40). R10 ($42.75) and R11 ($65.50).
Total - $721.55 in $1 Wagers.
Hit (4) Pick 4s - Race 2 ($299.75), Race 4 ($261.75), Race 6 ($103.37) and Race 10 ($45.25).
Total - $710.12 in 50 CENT wagers. Hit (3) Pick 5s - Race 1 ($1,264.50), Race 8 ($444.75) and Race 9 ($458.00).
Total - $2,167.25 in 50 CENT wagers.Grand Total Won - $8,377.04 Payouts were very low for the Win with an average of just $8.07. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a very good day winning (4) races, (1) 2nd and (2) 3rds. Joel Rosario also had a good day winning (2) races along with (3) 2nds.
Total - $287.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (4) Trifectas - Race 3 ($29.24), Race 4 ($218.38), R7 ($36.50) and Race 10 ($37.00).
Total - $321.12 in $1 wagers.
Also had (5) Superfectas in R2 ($3,250), R3 ($52), R5 ($355), R7 ($106) and R10 ($154).
Total - $3,917 in $1 wagers.
Hit (10) Daily Doubles - Race 2 ($18.60), Race 3 ($6.80), Race 4 ($34.25), R5 ($36.75), R6 ($16.50), R7 ($9.60), R9 ($8.80), R10 ($4.50) and R11 ($35.50).
Total - $252.50 in $1 wagers.
Also had (11) Pick 3s in R1 ($54.50), R2 ($83.50), R3 ($71.25), R4 ($167.50), R5 ($123.75), R6 ($13.40), R7 ($47.25), R8 ($28.75). R9 ($23.40). R10 ($42.75) and R11 ($65.50).
Total - $721.55 in $1 Wagers.
Hit (4) Pick 4s - Race 2 ($299.75), Race 4 ($261.75), Race 6 ($103.37) and Race 10 ($45.25).
Total - $710.12 in 50 CENT wagers. Hit (3) Pick 5s - Race 1 ($1,264.50), Race 8 ($444.75) and Race 9 ($458.00).
Total - $2,167.25 in 50 CENT wagers.Grand Total Won - $8,377.04 Payouts were very low for the Win with an average of just $8.07. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a very good day winning (4) races, (1) 2nd and (2) 3rds. Joel Rosario also had a good day winning (2) races along with (3) 2nds.