Kentucky Derby Results of Picks

Congrats to Mage (15-1) in Winning the Kentucky Derby!

Jockey Javier Castellano Gets His 1st Derby Win in 16 Attempts!
After one of the most unusual lead up to the "Run for the Roses" with (5) Scratches from the Derby field, including the morning line Favorite Forte, which allowed all (3) of the runners on the Also-eligibles list to get into the field which resulted in less than a full field with just (18) horses!
The result was a very exciting race with the winner Mage (15-1) becoming just the 3rd winner in 149 years to win the Kentucky Derby without have raced as a 3-year-old as well as to have only (3) career races!
Before a crowd of 150,335 spectators, the runner up in the Florida Derby took advantage of fast early pace to rally from 16th in the field of 18 to run down the leader Two Phil's (10-1) to win by 1 length.
The post time favorite Angel of Empire (4-1) also closed well from the back of the field to finish just 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner. It was another 3 lengths back to Disarm (27-1) in fourth place who finished 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Hit Show (24-1).
Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano finally got his first Kentucky Derby win in his 16th try.
The race set up for a Closer to win as a much quicker Early Fractions were being set than most experts predicted. Verifying (14-1), Kingsbarns (12-1) and Reincarnate (15-1) all were "on go" as they blazed fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 3/5 seconds. Two Phil's was content to set behind them racing in 4th while Mage and Angel of Empire were running near the back of the field!
Two Phil's was able to get through on the rail at the Mile pole to put his head in front as he kicked for home. Mage had started making his move weaving through traffic to set his sights on the leader. Angel of Empire who had been following Mage, got stuck 7-wide leaving the final turn but once he straightened out was making up ground on the leaders as he cam up 1 1/2 lengths short!
The final time of the race was 2:01.57 which was 3/5th seconds faster than Rich Strike's win last year.
With a crowd of 150,335 at the track the 14-race card which featured (7) Graded Stakes races generated a wagering handle of $288.7 Million which set a new record with an increase of 5% over the previous record set in 2022. All-sources handle on the Derby race was $188.7 Million, a new record.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May 15th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Watch Video Race Replay of Kentucky Derby - Mage's Upset Win!

Our Kentucky Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

Before all of the Scratches including the favorite Forte, we fell that the two morning line favorites, Forte and Tapit Trice would be the horses to beat based on their having a perfect season as a 3-year old but we felt that they would get beat but had a more than reasonable chance of finishing in the Superfecta!
We felt that there would be a faster early pace than most handicappers were prediciting and that there was a very good chance of a horse winning from closer the back of the field than one racing near the front. We were correct on that analysis.
Based on our scoring/rating system, we made Angel of Empire our Top pick to win even though he was not the top point earner in our Proven Winning Derby Profile. Our four top point horses were Hit Show, Angel of Empire, Mage and Kingsbarns.
We could not recommend using Hit Show to win because of his Post No. 1 draw which has not seen a winner since 1986 and was coming out of the Wood Memorial prep race which has not produced many Trifecta finishers but has finished in 4th several times in the past.
Thus we made Angel of Empire our pick to win the Kentucky Derby.
He looked to have the perfect running style for winning the Kentucky Derby - that of a Closer and being able to get a fast pace up front for him to close into and would be able to produce a similar run like he did in winning the Arkansas Derby.
Had most of the pedigree that we look for in a Derby winner with the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud for possible inheritance, the Powerful Raise A Native sire side pedigree line, had the Broodmare Sire Pedigree line of Nasrullah along with having earned a 100+ Bris Late Pace numbers in his last race.
We could not recommend Mage to win because of his limited racing foundation. Not having raced as a 2-year-old and having only 3 career races. He was attempting to become just the 3rd KY Derby winner that did not race as a 3-year-old in 149 years as well as only the 3rd winner that only had 3 career races! But he did and may have been helped by the 5 Scratches in the field including the favorite.
Our wagering strategy requires us to use 3-A, 3-B and 4-C runners with the As being most likely the winner with Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta with the Cs to make up the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.
Before the Scratches when our Picks were released we used as follows:.
Our A runners were Angel of Empire (A1 8-1), Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (A2 10-1) and Two Phil's (A3 12-1).
The B horses were Skinner (B1 20-1), Forte (B2 - 3-1) and Mage (B3 - 15-1) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind or with our (A) selections!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta & Superfecta were Tapit Trice (C1 - 5-1), Hit Show (C2 - 30-1), Practical Move (C3 - 10-1), Reincarnate and (C4 - 50-1)
With the Scratch of Skinner, Forte, and Practical Move we moved everyone up and added at the bottom of our picks Disarm and Mandarin Hero (Jpn).
Then our Picks changed to:
Our A runners were Angel of Empire (A1 8-1), Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (A2 10-1) and Two Phil's (A3 12-1).
The B horses were Mage (B1 15-1), Tapit Trice (B2 - 5-1) and Hit Show (B3 - 30-1) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind or with our (A) selections!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta & Superfecta were Reincarnate (C1 - 50-1), Disarm (C2 - 30-1), Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (C3 - 20-1), NONE and (C4 - 1-1).
As you can see we had the first (7) finishers in our selectionas the order was Mage, Two Phil's, Angel of Empire, Disarm, Hit Show, Derma Sotogake (Jpn) and Tapit Trice.
Our wagering strategy allowed us to cash in on the Trifecta by playing a ticket of A1A2A3B1B2B3 with A1A2A3 with A1A2A3B1B2B3C1C2C3 which paid $982 for a $1 wager.
We just missed out on cashing in on the Exacta and Superfecta.
Again the importance of having the Powerful and Critical pedigree of Raise A Native on the top sire side has proven successful as Mage, Angel of Empire, Disarm all had it! That is 3 of the 4 spots in the Superfecta.
We also had the KY Oaks upset winner Pretty Mischievous (10-1) in our Oaks/Derby Double wager and cashed in on the $183.36 payout provided you moved everyone up which made Mage our B1 horse.
In our Full Card Selections:
Payoffs were on the low side with (3) winning Favorites along with (3) Favorites running 2nd and (5) 2nd Favorites also winning in the 14 races!
Our Top selection won in (1) race as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (8) other races.
We Hit (9) Exacta winners. R1 ($12.12), R2 ($24.42), R3 ($31.96), R4 ($35.74), R5 ($26.86), R6 ($51.06), R7 ($1,003.36), R8 ($75.02) and R13 ($21.02).
Total - $1,281.56 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (8) Trifectas - Race 1 ($28.84), Race 2 ($32.40), Race 3 ($38.06), Race 4 ($21.96), Race 5 ($38.94), Race 6 ($177.88), Race 12 ($982.36) and Race 13 ($72.56).
Total - $1,393.00 for $1 wagers.
Also had (4) Superfectas in R2 ($120.59), R3 ($120.27), Race 4 ($38.43) and R5 ($90.82).
Total - $370.11 in $1 wagers.
Hit (5) Daily Doubles - Race 1 ($18.94), Race 2 ($30.93), Race 3 ($23.10), Race ($36.14) and Race 5 ($34.47).
Total - $143.58 in $1 wagers.
Had (4) Pick 3s in R1 ($19.92), R2 ($42.31), Race 3 ($76.27) and R4 ($95.19).
Total - $233.69 in 50CENT wagers.
Hit (1) Pick 4 - Race 2 ($362.84).
Total - $362.84 in 50CENT wagers.
Also had (1) Pick 5 in R1 ($949.20).
Total - $949.20 in 50CENT wagers.
Grand Total Won - $4,734.04
The track was rated FAST throughout the Day and the Turf rated FIRM for the day.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May 20th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
If you did not sign up for our Triple Crown series Picks you can sign up for our Preakness Stakes & Full card Picks by Clicking Here Now...
THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE All the information provided herein is for news and entertainment purposes only. Use of this information in violation of State, Federal, or Local laws is strictly prohibited.
Copyright 2024 © All rights reserved.