Results of the 2024 Kentucky Derby!
Congrats to Mystik Dan (18-1) Hangs On for the Win!
The 150th Kentucky Derby was truly a historical race! Not only did it mark 150th edition of the “Run for the Roses” but it also produced the remarkable feat of the same trainer and jockey to win both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby since 1952 when trainer Ben Jones and Eddie Arcaro did it!
Congrats to Ken McPeek and Bian Hernandez Jr. for accomplishing such a feat.
The race finish was also one for the history books when Mystik Dan (18-1) was able to hang on for the win over the fast closing Sierra Leone (9/2) and Forever Young (Jpn) (7-1)by a nose. Furthermore was just another nose separating Sierra Leone and Forever Young (Jpn)!
That’s correct, just (2) Noses separating the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners at the wire.
Tyler Gaffalione was in very close quarters with Forever Young (Jpn) in the final strides that looked like he interfered with Forever Young (Jpn) enough that it cost him 2nd place or even the win. But o nclaim of foul was made and the steward took several minutes looking at the video and decided no foul had occurred.
The KEY to Mystik Dan’s victory was the rail-skimming ride given to him by jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. that saved the horse some distance by taking the inside tripe to the wire. It allowed him to hang on to the lead by a short nose and giving the jockey/trainer team the KY Oaks / Derby Double with Thorpedo Anna’s victory on Friday over a sloppy track.
It was the slimmest of margins in a Kentucky Derby since 1996 when Grindstone nosed out Cavonnier.
The (3-1) favorite, Fierceness hopped at the start and was forwardly placed in 3rd less than 1 length behind the pace setter Track Phantom as they raced together down the back stretch and into the final turn till coming to the top of the turn where he began to fade and finished a disappointing 15th.
All the while Mystik Dan was saving ground racing on the inside and squeezed through a narrow opening on the rail inside of Track Phantom as he was leaving the final turn and took over the lead at the top of the stretch and was clear with a furlong remaining digging in to fend off the furious late rallies of Sierra Leone and Forever Young (Jpn) at the wire for a nose victory!
Catching Freedom (8-1) finished 4th 4 ¾ lengths in front of the other Japanese horse T O Password (Jpn) (48-1).
The final time was a modest 2:03 2/5 which was 2 seconds slower than Mage’s last year.
With a crowd of 156,710 at the track the 14-race card which featured (7) Graded Stakes races generated a record handle of $210.7 Million on just the Derby race and a new record handle for the day’s (14) races of $320.5 Million which was a 11.1% increase from last year.
The Derby TV audience on NBC Sports was the largest since 1989 with a total of 16.7 million viewers up 13% from last year.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May 18th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown Series.
Watch Video Race Replay of the 150th Kentucky Derby – Mystik Dan’s Upset Win!
In our Kentucky Derby Picks, we went with the favorite, Fierceness, for the first time in 24 years because we felt that he was something special with earning that 110 Beyer speed number in his last race and 105 two races prior which towered over the field. Big mistake and one I will not repeat in the future!
Favorites have not won in the last 5 years with none of them running worse than 5th.. Where did Fierceness finish? 15th which was a big disappointment.
He got out of the gate with just a minor hop at the start but was able to be in the first group of runners and looked like he could rate some but he was not able to as he kept racing within 1 length or less of the other two lead runners. As a result, when he got to leaving the final turn he began to fade and fade badly as he finished 15th.
Fierceness’ attempt to become the 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion to also win the Kentucky Derby, went down without having an impact in the finish of the race.
It will be interesting to see if he runs back in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga!
Based on our Derby Profile Points based scoring system, Fierceness was the Top scorer by far and thus became our pick to win.
Society Man, Forever Young (Jpn), Just a Touch and Track Phantom were our next highest scorers.
Our KY Derby wagering strategy, requires us to use 3-A, 3-B and 4-C runners with the As being most likely the winner with the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta and the Cs to be used in the bottom of the Trifecta and in the Superfecta.
We used Fierceness as our A1 horse and Forever Young (Jpn) and Endlessly as our A2 and A3 runners.
The B horses were Sierra Leone (B1), Catching Freedom (B2) and Mystik Dan as B3.
Our C horses were Resilience, Just a Touch and Honor Marie.
As you can see, we had all the Superfecta horses in our A and B selections. We just used the wrong one to win the race!
Our wagering strategy did allow us to cash in on the Exacta pay off $258.56 by wheeling the Field on Top of Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
We also recommended an Exacta wager of boxing our B and C horses which would give you a second winning Exacta of $258.56.
In Our Full Card Picks:
Payoffs were decent even with (4) winning favorites, (1) favorite running 2nd and (1) winning 2nd favorite. Average $2 Win payout was a nice $18.91 with the low being $2.98 and the high $96.34.
Our Top selection won in (3) races as well as being in our Top 4 selections in (8) additional races.
We Hit (8) Exacta winners R2 ($16.94, R4 ($81.50), R6 ($13.20), R7 ($31.12), R8 ($80.44), R11 ($39.50), R12 ($258.56) and R14 (46.08).
Total - $567.34 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (2) Trifectas – Race 6 ($54.28) and Race 7 ($71.82).
Total - $126.10 in $1 wagers.
Also had (2) Superfectas in Race 6 ($308.40) and Race 7 ($353.19).
Total - $661.59 in $1 wagers.
Hit (8) Daily Doubles – Race 1 ($3.87), Race2 ($2.31), Race 3 ($9.87), Race 4 ($81.50), Race 5 ($23.95), Race 6 (13.02), Race 7 ($98.12) and Race 10 ($29.52).
Total - $262.15 in $1 wagers.
Had (6) Pick 3s in Race 1 ($3.55), Race 2 ($7.76), Race 3 ($45.97), Race 4 ($105.20), Race 5 (65.44) and Race 6 (119.16).
Total $347.08 in 50 CENT wagers.
Hit (2) Pick 4s – Race 2 ($84.80) and Race 4 ($447.16).
Total $531.96 in 50 CENT wagers.
Also had (2) Pick 5s – Race 1 ($234.54) and Race 3 ($687.86).
Total $922.40.
Grand Total Won - $3,418.62.
The Preakness Stakes is up next on May18th as the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.